Academic and policy literatures on intergenerational transmissions of poverty and inequality suggest that improving schooling attainment and income for parents in poor households will lessen poverty and inequality in their children's generation through increased human capital accumulated by their children. However, magnitudes of such effects are unknown. We use data on children born in the 21st century in four developing countries to simulate how changes in parents' schooling attainment and consumption would affect poverty and inequality in both the parent's and their children's generations. We find that increasing minimum schooling or income substantially reduces poverty and inequality in the parent's generation, but does not carry over to reducing poverty and inequality substantially in the children's generation. Therefore, while reductions in poverty and inequality in the parents' generation are desirable in themselves to improve welfare among current adults, they are not likely to have large impacts in reducing poverty and particularly in reducing inequality in human capital in the next generation.
There are two regularities we have learned from experimental studies of choice under risk. The first is that the majority of people weigh objective probabilities nonlinearly. The second regularity, although less commonly acknowledged, is that there is a large amount of heterogeneity in how people distort probabilities. Despite this, little effort has been made to identify the source of heterogeneity. We explore the possibility that personality type is linked to probability distortions. Using validated psychological questionnaires, we clustered participants into distinct personality types: motivated, impulsive, and affective. We found that the motivated participants viewed gambling as more attractive, whereas the impulsive participants were the most capable of discriminating non-extreme probabilities. Our results suggest that the observed heterogeneity in probability distortions may be explained by personality profiles, which can be elicited though standard psychological questionnaires.
by
Richard Karlsson Linnér;
Travis T Mallard;
Peter B Barr;
Sandra Sanchez-Roige;
James W Madole;
Morgan N Driver;
Holly E Poore;
Ronald de Vlaming;
Andrew D Grotzinger;
Jorim J Tielbeek;
Emma C Johnson;
Mengzhen Liu;
Sara Brin Rosenthal;
Trey Ideker;
Hang Zhou;
Rachel L Kember;
Joëlle A Pasman;
Karin JH Verweij;
Dajiang J Liu;
Scott Vrieze;
Henry R Kranzler;
Joel Gelernter;
Kathleen Mullan Harris;
Elliot M Tucker-Drob;
Irwin Waldman;
Abraham A Palmer;
Paige A Harden;
Philipp D Koellinger;
Danielle M Dick
Behaviors and disorders related to self-regulation, such as substance use, antisocial behavior and attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder, are collectively referred to as externalizing and have shared genetic liability. We applied a multivariate approach that leverages genetic correlations among externalizing traits for genome-wide association analyses. By pooling data from ~1.5 million people, our approach is statistically more powerful than single-trait analyses and identifies more than 500 genetic loci. The loci were enriched for genes expressed in the brain and related to nervous system development. A polygenic score constructed from our results predicts a range of behavioral and medical outcomes that were not part of genome-wide analyses, including traits that until now lacked well-performing polygenic scores, such as opioid use disorder, suicide, HIV infections, criminal convictions and unemployment. Our findings are consistent with the idea that persistent difficulties in self-regulation can be conceptualized as a neurodevelopmental trait with complex and far-reaching social and health correlates.
The disposition effect is a phenomenon in which investors hold onto losing assets longer than they hold onto gaining assets. In this study, we used functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to measure the response of valuation regions in the brain during the decision to keep or to sell an asset that followed a random walk in price. The most common explanation for the disposition effect is preference-based: namely, that people are risk-averse over gains and risk-seeking over losses. This explanation would predict correlations between individuals’ risk-preferences, the magnitude of their disposition effect, and activation in valuation structures of the brain. We did not observe these correlations. Nor did we find evidence for a realization utility explanation, which would predict differential responses in valuation regions during the decision to sell versus keep an asset that correlated with the magnitude of the disposition effect. Instead, we found an attenuated ventral striatum response to upticks in value below the purchase price in some individuals with a large disposition effect. Given the role of the striatum in signaling prediction error, the blunted striatal response is consistent with the expectation that an asset will rise when it is below the purchase price, thus spurring loss-holding behavior. This suggests that for some individuals, the disposition effect is likely driven by a belief that the asset will eventually return to the purchase price, also known as mean reversion.
Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 5 calls on nations to promote gender equality and to empower women and girls. SDG5 also recognizes the value of women's economic empowerment, entailing equal rights to economic resources and full participation at all levels in economic decisions. Also according to SDG5, eliminating harmful practices—such as child marriage before age 18—is a prerequisite for women's economic empowerment. Using national data for 4,129 married women 15–43 years who took part in the Egypt Labor Market Panel Survey (ELMPS 1998–2012), we performed autoregressive, cross-lagged panel analyses to assess whether women's first marriage in adulthood (at 18 years or older, as reported in 2006), was positively associated with their long-term post-marital economic empowerment, measured as their engagement in market work and latent family economic agency in 2012. Women's first marriage in adulthood had positive unadjusted associations with their market work and family economic agency in 2012. These associations persisted after accounting for market work and family economic agency in 2006, pre-marital resources for empowerment, and cumulative fertility. Policies to discourage child marriage may show promise to enhance women's long-term post-marital economic empowerment.
The authors regret two errors in the original paper. First, there was an error in the calculation of the original results that affects Fig. 4 and Tables 4, 5, 7, 9, 10, and 11 and the text in three instances. (1) On page 682, section 4.1, second paragraph, the GPI should be given as 0.78. (2) On page 686, section 4.1.3.2, first paragraph, the correlation between input in productive decisions and control over use of income should be given as 0.503 and the correlation between group membership and membership in influential groups should be given as 0.764. (3) On page 687, section 4.1.3.3, third paragraph, Spearman's rho should be given as 0.964 and Kendall's tau as 0.911. Second, the project sample sizes were incorrectly reported in the original table and figure notes. The correct project sample sizes are as follows: ANGeL (N = 7500), AVC (N = 960), SE LEVER (N = 2705), TRAIN (N = 9735), and WorldVeg (N = 1302). The corrected tables and figures are included below. The results are not qualitatively different from those published in the original paper. The authors would like to apologise for any inconvenience caused.
Background: Rural Kentucky is an epicenter of hepatitis C(HCV), especially among young adults who inject drugs. While the Risk Environment Framework (REF) has been used widely to study and address socio-ecological determinants of infectious disease among people who inject drugs (PWID), it has been almost exclusively applied to urban environments. Applying REF to rural environments can enhance our understanding of the drivers of HCV epidemics in these hard-hit areas, and inform the creation and implementation of harm reduction interventions in this local context. Methods: Participants were recruited between March and August 2017 via community-based outreach methods (e.g., cookouts, flyers) and peer referral. Individuals who met eligibility criteria (aged 18–35, recently used prescription opioids and/or heroin to get high, lived in one of the 5 target counties) participated indepth, semi-structured interviews. The interview guide was informed by the REF, and covered HCV-related risk behaviors and environmental features that shaped vulnerability to engaging in these behaviors. Interviews were transcribed and analyzed using constructivist grounded-theory methods. Results: Participants (N=19) described multiple intersecting risk environment features that shaped vulnerability to HCV transmission. Economic decline generated intergenerational poverty, dwindling employment prospects, and diminished social enrichment opportunities that collectively contributed to substance misuse and risky injection practices. Geographic isolation, lack of collective knowledge about HCV transmission risks, scarce harm reduction services, familial poverty, and fear of law enforcement interacted to increase the odds of people injecting in “trap houses” (akin to shooting galleries) or secluded areas, spaces in which they rushed to inject and shared injection equipment. Pervasive stigma was a structural barrier to adopting, expanding, and using harm reduction services. Conclusion: This exploratory study identified features of rural risk environments that may contribute to significant HCV burdens in Appalachian Kentucky. Findings signal the importance of expanding proven harm reduction strategies and anti-stigma interventions tailored to rural contexts.
The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services identified unplanned hospital readmissions as a critical healthcare quality and cost problem. Improvements in hospital discharge decision-making and post-discharge care are needed to address the problem. Utilization of clinical decision support (CDS) can improve discharge decision-making but little is known about the empirical significance of two opposing problems that can occur: (1) negligible uptake of CDS by providers or (2) over-reliance on CDS and underuse of other information. This paper reports an experiment where, in addition to electronic medical records (EMR), clinical decision-makers are provided subjective reports by standardized patients, or CDS information, or both. Subjective information, reports of being eager or reluctant for discharge, was obtained during examinations of standardized patients, who are regularly employed in medical education, and in our experiment had been given scripts for the experimental treatments. The CDS tool presents discharge recommendations obtained from econometric analysis of data from de-identified EMR of hospital patients. 38 clinical decision-makers in the experiment, who were third and fourth year medical students, discharged eight simulated patient encounters with an average length of stay 8.1 in the CDS supported group and 8.8 days in the control group. When the recommendation was “Discharge,” CDS uptake of “Discharge” recommendation was 20% higher for eager than reluctant patients. Compared to discharge decisions in the absence of patient reports: (i) odds of discharging reluctant standardized patients were 67% lower in the CDS-assisted group and 40% lower in the control (no-CDS) group; whereas (ii) odds of discharging eager standardized patients were 75% higher in the control group and similar in CDS-assisted group. These findings indicate that participants were neither ignoring nor over-relying on CDS.
The health co-benefits of CO 2 mitigation can provide a strong incentive for climate policy through reductions in air pollutant emissions that occur when targeting shared sources. However, reducing air pollutant emissions may also have an important co-harm, as the aerosols they form produce net cooling overall. Nevertheless, aerosol impacts have not been fully incorporated into cost-benefit modeling that estimates how much the world should optimally mitigate. Here we find that when both co-benefits and co-harms are taken fully into account, optimal climate policy results in immediate net benefits globally, overturning previous findings from cost-benefit models that omit these effects. The global health benefits from climate policy could reach trillions of dollars annually, but will importantly depend on the air quality policies that nations adopt independently of climate change. Depending on how society values better health, economically optimal levels of mitigation may be consistent with a target of 2 °C or lower.
The application of neuroimaging methods to product marketing — neuromarketing — has recently gained considerable popularity. We propose that there are two main reasons for this trend. First, the possibility that neuroimaging will become cheaper and faster than other marketing methods; and second, the hope that neuroimaging will provide marketers with information that is not obtainable through conventional marketing methods. Although neuroimaging is unlikely to be cheaper than other tools in the near future, there is growing evidence that it may provide hidden information about the consumer experience. The most promising application of neuroimaging methods to marketing may come before a product is even released — when it is just an idea being developed.