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Author Notes:

A. N. M. Kraay, amullis@umich.edu

A.N.M.K.: conceptualization, formal analysis, funding acquisition, methodology and writing—original draft; M.E.G.: conceptualization, methodology and writing—review and editing; P.H.: investigation and writing—review and editing; J.M.B.: methodology, supervision and writing—review and editing; B.A.L.: conceptualization, funding acquisition, methodology and writing—review and editing; Y.G.: formal analysis, methodology and writing—review and editing; K.K.: funding acquisition, methodology and writing—review and editing; A.H.: conceptualization, methodology, supervision and writing—review and editing. All authors gave final approval for publication and agreed to be held accountable for the work performed therein.

B.A.L. reports grants and personal fees from Takeda Pharmaceuticals and personal fees from the World Health Organization outside the submitted work. J.M.B. reports personal fees from the World Health Organization outside the submitted work.

Subject:

Research Funding:

This work was supported by NIAID T32AI074492 (to J.M.B.), NIGMS award R01 GM 12480 and 12480-03S1 (both to A.N.M.K., M.E.G., J.M.B., K.K., A.H. and B.A.L.), and NSF award 2032084 (to A.N.M.K. and B.A.L.).

Keywords:

  • Science & Technology
  • Multidisciplinary Sciences
  • Science & Technology - Other Topics
  • booster
  • evolution
  • vaccination
  • COVID-19
  • non-pharmaceutical interventions
  • INFECTION

The role of booster vaccination and ongoing viral evolution in seasonal circulation of SARS-CoV-2

Tools:

Journal Title:

JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY INTERFACE

Volume:

Volume 19, Number 194

Publisher:

, Pages 20220477-20220477

Type of Work:

Article | Final Publisher PDF

Abstract:

Periodic resurgences of COVID-19 in the coming years can be expected, while public health interventions may be able to reduce their intensity. We used a transmission model to assess how the use of booster doses and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) amid ongoing pathogen evolution might influence future transmission waves. We find that incidence is likely to increase as NPIs relax, with a second seasonally driven surge expected in autumn 2022. However, booster doses can greatly reduce the intensity of both waves and reduce cumulative deaths by 20% between 7 January 2022 and 7 January 2023. Reintroducing NPIs during the autumn as incidence begins to increase again could also be impactful. Combining boosters and NPIs results in a 30% decrease in cumulative deaths, with potential for greater impacts if variant-adapted boosters are used. Reintroducing these NPIs in autumn 2022 as transmission rates increase provides similar benefits to sustaining NPIs indefinitely (307 000 deaths with indefinite NPIs and boosters compared with 304 000 deaths with transient NPIs and boosters). If novel variants with increased transmissibility or immune escape emerge, deaths will be higher, but vaccination and NPIs are expected to remain effective tools to decrease both cumulative and peak health system burden, providing proportionally similar relative impacts.

Copyright information:

© 2022 The Authors.

This is an Open Access work distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
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