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Author Notes:

Dr. Steven M. Goodreau, goodreau@uw.edu

We would like to thank the staff of Emory-CAMP (Coalition for Applied Modeling Project), other CAMP researchers, including Samuel Jenness, and the members of CAMP’s Public Health Advisory Group, especially Jane Kelly, Nanette Benbow, and Thomas Bertrand for reviewing a draft of this manuscript. We additionally would like to thank the Bureau of Sexually Transmitted Infections at the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene, and the Bureau of Sexual Health and Epidemiology and the Bureau of HIV/AIDS Epidemiology at the New York State Department of Health, especially Wendy Patterson and Srikanth Bomma. We also thank Katharine Howe of the Rhode Island Department of Health and members of the Network Modeling Group at the University of Washington, especially Martina Morris.

None of the authors have conflicts of interest to declare. All authors have made substantial contributions to all of the following: (1) the conception and design of the study, or acquisition of data, or analysis and interpretation of data, and (2) the drafting and critical revision of the article. All authors have approved the version submitted. The article has not been published previously and is not under consideration for publication elsewhere.

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Research Funding:

This work was supported by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s National Center for HIV/AIDS, Viral Hepatitis, STD, and TB Prevention [cooperative agreement U38-PS004646]. Additional support was provided by the University of Washington/Fred Hutch Center for AIDS Research, an NIH-funded program [grant number P30 AI027757]; and by a research infrastructure grant from NICHD to the UW Center for Studies in Demography and Ecology [grant number P2C HD042828]. CDC scientist coauthors were involved in the study design, interpretation of results, and writing of the manuscript. The findings and conclusions in this report are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official position of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Keywords:

  • Science & Technology
  • Life Sciences & Biomedicine
  • Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
  • Gonorrhea (epidemiology)
  • Chlamydia infections (epidemiology)
  • HIV-1 (epidemiology)
  • Adolescents
  • Sexual behavior
  • United States
  • Mathematical model
  • TRANSMITTED INFECTIONS
  • INTERVENTIONS
  • PREGNANCY
  • EDUCATION

Predicting the impact of sexual behavior change on adolescent STI in the US and New York State: a case study of the teen-SPARC tool

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Journal Title:

ANNALS OF EPIDEMIOLOGY

Volume:

Volume 47

Publisher:

, Pages 13-18

Type of Work:

Article | Post-print: After Peer Review

Abstract:

Purpose: Adolescents aged 13–18 years bear a large burden of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) and changing adolescent sexual risk behavior is a key component of reducing this burden. We demonstrate a novel publicly available modeling tool (teen-SPARC) to help state and local health departments predict the impact of behavioral change on gonorrhea, chlamydia, and HIV burden among adolescents. Methods: Teen-SPARC is built in Excel for familiarity and ease and parameterized using data from CDC's Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System. We present teen-SPARC's methods, including derivation of national parameters and instructions to obtain local parameters. We model multiple scenarios of increasing condom use and estimate the impact on gonorrhea, chlamydia, and HIV incidence, comparing national and New York State (NYS) results. Results: A 1% annual increase in condom use (consistent with Healthy People 2020 goals) could prevent nearly 10,000 cases of STIs nationwide. Increases in condom use of 17.1%, 2.2%, and 25.5% in NYS would be necessary to avert 1000 cases of gonorrhea, 1000 cases of chlamydia, and 10 cases of HIV infection, respectively. Additional results disaggregate outcomes by age, sex, partner sex, jurisdiction, and pathogen. Conclusion: Teen-SPARC may be able to assist health departments aiming to tailor behavioral interventions for STI prevention among adolescents.

Copyright information:

This is an Open Access work distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/rdf).
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