Association of Online Search Trends With Vaccination in the United States: June 2020 Through May 2021

• Authors: Philipp Berning, Johns Hopkins University; Leu Huang, Johns Hopkins University; Alexander C Razavi, Emory University; Ellen Boakye, Johns Hopkins University; Ngozi Osuji, Johns Hopkins University; Andrew C Stokes, Boston University; Seth S Martin, Johns Hopkins University; John W Ayers, University of California, San Diego; Michael J Blaha, Johns Hopkins University; Omar Dzaye, Johns Hopkins University
• Journal Title: Frontiers in Immunology
• Volume: Volume 13
• Publisher: Frontiers Media | 2022-04-20
• Type of Work: Article | Final Publisher PDF
• Publisher DOI: http://doi.org/10.3389/fimmu.2022.884211
• Subjects: Health Sciences, Radiology; Health Sciences, Public Health
• Keywords: google trends; infodemiology; SARS-CoV-2 vaccination; influenza vaccination; flu vaccination

Abstract

Stagnating COVID-19 vaccination rates and vaccine hesitancy remain a threat to public health. Improved strategies for real-time tracking and estimation of population-level behavior regarding vaccinations are needed. The aim of this study was to evaluate whether online search trends for COIVD-19 and influenza mirror vaccination rates. State-level weekly fraction of online searches for top vaccination-related search terms and CDC vaccination data were obtained from June 1, 2020, to May 31, 2021. Next, trends in online search and vaccination data for COVID-19 and influenza were analyzed for visual and quantitative correlation patterns using Spearman’s rank correlation analysis. Online searches in the US for COVID-19 vaccinations increased 2.71-fold (95% CI: 1.98-3.45) in the 4 weeks after the FDA emergency authorization compared to the precedent 4 weeks. In March-April 2021, US online searches reached a plateau that was followed by a decline of 83.3% (95% CI: 31.2%-135.3%) until May 31, 2021. The timing of peaks in online searches varied across US states. Online searches were strongly correlated with vaccination rates (r=0.71, 95% CI: 0.45 - 0.87), preceding actual reported vaccination rates in 44 of 51 states. Online search trends preceded vaccination trends by a median of 3.0 weeks (95% CI: 2.0-4.0 weeks) across all states. For influenza vaccination searches, seasonal peaks in September-October between 2016-2020 were noted. Influenza search trends highly correlated with the timing of actual vaccinations for the 2019-2020 (r=0.82, 95% CI: 0.64 – 0.93) and 2020-2021 season (r=0.91, 95% CI: 0.78 – 0.97). Search trends and real-world vaccination rates are highly correlated. Temporal alignment and correlation levels were higher for influenza vaccinations; however, only online searches for COVID-19 vaccination preceded vaccination trends. These findings indicate that US online search data can potentially guide public health efforts, including policy changes and identifying geographical areas to expand vaccination campaigns.