The association between intersystem prison transfers and COVID-19 incidence in a state prison system

• Authors: Lauren Brinkley-Rubinstein, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill; Katherine LeMasters, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill; Phuc Nguyen, Duke University; Kathryn Nowotny, University of Miami; David Cloud, Emory University; Alexander Volfovsky, Duke University
• Journal Title: PLoS One
• Volume: Volume 16, Number 8
• Publisher: Public Library of Science (PLoS) | 2021-08-12
• Type of Work: Article | Final Publisher PDF
• Publisher DOI: http://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0256185
• Subjects: Health Sciences, Epidemiology; Statistics; Sociology, Public and Social Welfare
• Keywords: COVID-19; state prison system; pandemic

Abstract

Prisons are the epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic. Media reports have focused on whether transfers of incarcerated people between prisons have been the source of outbreaks. Our objective was to examine the relationship between intersystem prison transfers and COVID-19 incidence in a state prison system. We assessed the change in the means of the time-series of prison transfers and their cross-correlation with the time-series of COVID-19 tests and cases. Regression with automatic detection of multiple change-points was used to identify important changes to transfers. There were over 20,000 transfers between the state’s prisons from January through October 2020. Most who were transferred (82%), experienced a single transfer. Transfers between prisons are positively related to future COVID-19 case rates but transfers are not reactive to current case rates. To mitigate the spread of COVID-19 in carceral settings, it is crucial for transfers of individuals between facilities to be limited.