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Email: anamaria.vicedo@ispm.unibe.ch

Email: antonio.gasparrini@ishtm.ac.uk

A.M.VC., A.G., A.T., C.A., Y.G., D.H., M.M. and V.H. were involved in conceptualization. A.M.V.C., A.G. and F.S. designed the methodology. A.M.VC. conducted the formal analysis. A.M.VC., N.G., N.S., F.S., D.R., R.S.D.S., A.T., C.A., Y.G., Y.H., R.A., S.T., M.S.Z.S.C., P.H.N.S., E.L., P.M.C., M.V.O., H.K., S.O., J.K., A.U., H.O., E.I., J.J.J.K.J., N.R., M.P., A.S., K.K., A.A., F.M., A.E., P.G., A.Z., P.M., F.D., M.H., B.A., M.H.D., C.D.V., A.O., D.H., C.A., S.R., F.d.R., G.C.E., X.S., S.S., J.M., I.H.H., S.F., F.A., H.K., W.L., C.I., B.F., M.S.R., Y.L.L.G., B.Y.C., S.L., B.A., A.A., A.Z., J.S., T.N.D., D. V.D. and M.M. were involved in resources and data curation. A.M.V.C., D.R. and N.S. undertook visualization. A.M.V.C., A.G. and N.S. wrote the draft manuscript. A.H., A.M.V.C., N.S., F.S., D.R., R.S.D.S., A.T., C.A., Y.G., Y.H., R.A., S.T., M.S.Z.S.C., P.H.N.S., E.L., P.M.C., M.V.O., H.K., S.O., J.K., A.U., H.O., E.I., J.J.J.K.J., N.R., M.P., A.S., K.K., A. A., F.M., A.E., P.G., A.Z., P.M., F.D., M.H., B.A., M.H.D., C.D.V., A.O., D.H., C.A., S.R., F. d.R., G.C.E., X.S., S.S., J.M., I.H.H., S.F., F.A., H.K., W.L., C.I., B.F., M.S.R., Y.L.L.G., B. Y.C., S.L., B.A., A.A., A.Z., J.S., T.N.D., D.V.D., M.M. and D.H. were involved in revising the manuscript. A.G. supervised the project.

We thank the participants of the ISIMIP Health workshop in Barcelona in November 2018 where this work was discussed for the first time.

The authors declare no competing interests.

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Research Funding:

This study was supported by the Medical Research Council UK (grant no. MR/M022625/1), the Natural Environment Research Council UK (grant no. NE/R009384/1) and the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Project Exhaustion (grant no. 820655). N.S. was supported by the NIEHS-funded HERCULES Center (P30ES019776). Y.H. was supported by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund of the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency, Japan (JPMEERF15S11412).

J.J.J.K.J. was supported by Academy of Finland (grant no. 310372). V.H. was supported by the Spanish Ministry of Economy, Industry and Competitiveness (grant no. PCIN-2017-046) and the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (grant no. 01LS1201A2). J.K. and A.U. were supported by the Czech Science Foundation (grant no. 20-28560S).

J.M. was supported by the Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT) (SFRH/BPD/115112/2016). S.R. and F.d.R. were supported by European Union’s Horizon 2020 Project EXHAUSTION (grant no. 820655)

M.H. was supported by the Japan Science and Technology Agency as part of SICORP, grant no. JPMJSC20E4. Y.G. was supported by the Career Development Fellowship of the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council (APP1163693).

S.L. was support by the Early Career Fellowship of the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council (APP1109193). Y.L.L.G. was supported by the Taiwan Ministry of Science and Technology (MOST110-2918-I-002-007) as a visiting academic at the University of Sydney.

Keywords:

  • Science & Technology
  • Life Sciences & Biomedicine
  • Physical Sciences
  • Environmental Sciences
  • Environmental Studies
  • Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
  • Environmental Sciences & Ecology
  • METAANALYSIS
  • TEMPERATURE

The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change

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Journal Title:

NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE

Volume:

Volume 11, Number 6

Publisher:

, Pages 492-+

Type of Work:

Article | Post-print: After Peer Review

Abstract:

Climate change affects human health; however, there have been no large-scale, systematic efforts to quantify the heat-related human health impacts that have already occurred due to climate change. Here, we use empirical data from 732 locations in 43 countries to estimate the mortality burdens associated with the additional heat exposure that has resulted from recent human-induced warming, during the period 1991–2018. Across all study countries, we find that 37.0% (range 20.5–76.3%) of warm-season heat-related deaths can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change and that increased mortality is evident on every continent. Burdens varied geographically but were of the order of dozens to hundreds of deaths per year in many locations. Our findings support the urgent need for more ambitious mitigation and adaptation strategies to minimize the public health impacts of climate change.
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