Resting Heart Rate, Short-Term Heart Rate Variability and Incident Atrial Fibrillation (from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA))

• Authors: Mohammadali Habibi, Johns Hopkins University; Harjit Chahal, Medstar Heart and Vascular Institute; Philip Greenland, Northwestern University; Eliseo Guallar, Johns Hopkins University; João A. C. Lima, Johns Hopkins University; Elsayed Z. Soliman, Wake Forest University; Alvaro Alonso, Emory University; Susan R. Heckbert, University of Washington; Saman Nazarian, University of Pennsylvania
• Journal Title: AMERICAN JOURNAL OF CARDIOLOGY
• Volume: Volume 124, Number 11
• Publisher: Elsevier | 2019-09-06, Pages 1684-1689
• Type of Work: Article | Post-print: After Peer Review
• Publisher DOI: http://doi.org/10.1016/j.amjcard.2019.08.025
• Subjects: Health Sciences, Medicine and Surgery; Sociology, Ethnic and Racial Studies
• Keywords: Atrial fibrillation; resting heart rate; heart rate variability; autonomic nervous system

Abstract

Evidence suggests an association between autonomic nervous system (ANS) function and atrial fibrillation (AF) development. We sought to examine the association of baseline resting heart rate (RHR) and short-term heart rate variability (HRV) as surrogates of (ANS) with incident AF in individuals without prior cardiovascular disease. A total of 6261 participants of the Multi Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) who were free of AF and diagnosed cardiovascular disease were enrolled. Three standard 10-second, 12-lead electrocardiograms were used to measure RHR, the standard deviation of normal-to-normal intervals (SDNN) and the root mean square of successive differences in RR intervals (RMSSD). Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for demographics, atrioventricular nodal agents, and known cardiovascular risk factors were used to examine the association of baseline RHR, and log transformed SDNN and RMSDD with incident AF. Over a mean follow-up of 11.3 ± 3.7 years, 754 (12%) participants developed AF. Spline curve analysis revealed a non-linear association between RHR, HRV and incident AF. In fully adjusted models higher (but not lower) baseline resting heart rate (RHR >76 beats/min) was associated with incident AF (HR: 1.48 95% CI: 1.18-1.86). Additionally, lower values of RMSDD and SDNN and higher values of RMSDD were independently associated with incident AF. In conclusion, cardiac ANS dysregulation indicated as higher RHR and lower HRV is associated with incident AF independent of known cardiovascular risk factors.