Estimating the COVID-Related Deaths Attributable to President Trump’s Early Pronouncements About Masks

• Authors: Robert Hahn, Emory University
• Journal Title: INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF HEALTH SERVICES
• Volume: Volume 51, Number 1
• Publisher: SAGE Publications | 2021-01-01, Pages 14-17
• Type of Work: Article | Final Publisher PDF
• Publisher DOI: http://doi.org/10.1177/0020731420960345
• Subjects: Health Sciences, Public Health; Sociology, Public and Social Welfare
• Keywords: presidential pronouncements; COVID-19; masks; attributable mortality

Abstract

The goal of this analysis is to estimate the proportion of COVID-19 deaths attributable to President Donald Trump’s early pronouncements about voluntary mask use and his intention not to use masks. Data from available research were used to estimate parameters for the calculation of population attributable risk for COVID-19 deaths reported to date. Assuming Trump’s pronouncement to have caused 25%, 50%, and 75% of the non-use of masks, estimates of Trump-attributable COVID-19 deaths to date would be, respectively, 4,244, 8,356, or 12,202. The effects of presidential pronouncements on health-related matters may have large public health consequences. Pronouncements of national leaders should be based on the best available science.