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Author Notes:

Kenji Mizumoto (Mizumoto.Kenji.5a@kyoto-u.ac.jp)

We thank Katsushi Kagaya for discussion on the model.

KM and GC conceived and designed the early study idea and built the model.

KM, AT, KR, JK, PY collected and processed data.

KM and GC implemented statistical analysis.

KM and AT wrote the first full draft.

KM, AT, KR, PY and GC contributed to the interpretation of the results.

KM, AT, KR, JK, PY and GC edited and commented on several earlier versions of the manuscript.

GC provided supervision.

Conflict of interest: None declared.

Subjects:

Research Funding:

KM acknowledges support from the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS) KAKENHI Grant Number 18K17368 and from the Leading Initiative for Excellent Young Researchers from the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sport, Science & Technology of Japan.

AT and KR support from a Georgia State University’s Second Century Initiative (2CI) doctoral fellowship.

JK partly support from National Institute of Health K25CA181503, and U01CA242936.

GC acknowledges support from NSF grant 1414374 as part of the joint NSF-NIH-USDA Ecology and Evolution of Infectious Diseases program.

Keywords:

  • reproduction number
  • ebola
  • conflict
  • outbreak
  • next generation matrix
  • Congo
  • epidemic
  • threshold

Spatial variability in the reproduction number of Ebola virus disease, Democratic Republic of the Congo, January–September 2019

Tools:

Journal Title:

Eurosurveillance

Volume:

Volume 24, Number 42

Publisher:

Type of Work:

Article | Final Publisher PDF

Abstract:

The ongoing Ebola virus disease epidemic (August 2018─October 2019) in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, has been exacerbated by deliberate attacks on healthcare workers despite vaccination efforts. Using a mathematical/statistical modelling framework, we present the quantified effective reproduction number (R t) at national and regional levels as at 29 September. The weekly trend in R t displays fluctuations while our recent national-level R t falls slightly above 1.0 with substantial uncertainty, which suggests improvements in epidemic control.

Copyright information:

This article is copyright of the authors or their affiliated institutions, 2019.

This is an Open Access work distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
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