Norovirus transmission dynamics: a modelling review

• Authors: K.A.M. Gaythorpe, University of Cambridge; C.L. Trotter, University of Cambridge; Benjamin Lopman, Emory University; M. Steele, Emory University; A.J.K. Conlan, University of Cambridge
• Journal Title: Epidemiology and Infection
• Volume: Volume 146, Number 2
• Publisher: Cambridge University Press (CUP): STM Journals | 2018-01-01, Pages 147-158
• Type of Work: Article | Final Publisher PDF
• Publisher DOI: http://doi.org/10.1017/S0950268817002692
• Subjects: Biology, Veterinary Science; Health Sciences, Epidemiology
• Keywords: Science & Technology; Life Sciences & Biomedicine; Public, Environmental & Occupational Health; Infectious Diseases; Basic reproduction number; estimating disease prevalence; mathematical modelling; norovirus; transmission; INFECTIOUS INTESTINAL DISEASE; NORWALK VIRUS; OUTBREAK; GASTROENTERITIS; EPIDEMICS; COMMUNITY; SEROEPIDEMIOLOGY; SEASONALITY; CHALLENGES; EVOLUTION

Abstract

Norovirus is one of the leading causes of viral gastroenteritis worldwide and responsible for substantial morbidity, mortality and healthcare costs. To further understanding of the epidemiology and control of norovirus, there has been much recent interest in describing the transmission dynamics of norovirus through mathematical models. In this study, we review the current modelling approaches for norovirus transmission. We examine the data and methods used to estimate these models that vary structurally and parametrically between different epidemiological contexts. Many of the existing studies at population level have focused on the same case notification dataset, whereas models from outbreak settings are highly specific and difficult to generalise. In this review, we explore the consistency in the description of norovirus transmission dynamics and the robustness of parameter estimates between studies. In particular, we find that there is considerable variability in estimates of key parameters such as the basic reproduction number, which may mean that the effort required to control norovirus at the population level may currently be underestimated.