Recasting the theory of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission dynamics and control

• Authors: David L. Smith, Johns Hopkins University; T. Alex Perkins, National Institutes of Health; RC Reiner, National Institutes of Health; CM Barker, National Institutes of Health; T Niu, National Institutes of Health; LF Chaves, Nagasaki University; AM Ellis, National Institutes of Health; DB George, National Institutes of Health; A Le Menach, Center for Disease Dynamics, Economics & Policy; JRC Pulliam, National Institutes of Health; D Bisanzio, Emory University; C Buckee, Harvard University; C Chiyaka, University of Florida; DAT Cummings, Johns Hopkins University; AJ Garcia, University of Florida; ML Gatton, Queensland University of Technology; PW Gething, University of Oxford; DM Hartley, National Institutes of Health; G Johnston, Columbia University; EY Klein, Center for Disease Dynamics, Economics & Policy; E Michael, University of Notre Dame; AL Lloyd, National Institutes of Health; DM Pigott, University of Oxford; WK Reisen, National Institutes of Health; N Ruktanonchai, University of Florida; BK Singh, University of Notre Dame; J Stoller, Stoller Design Associates; AJ Tatem, National Institutes of Health; Uriel Kitron, Emory University; HCJ Godfray, University of Oxford; JM Cohen, Clinton Health Access Initiative; SI Hay, National Institutes of Health; TW Scott, National Institutes of Health
• Journal Title: Transactions of The Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene
• Volume: Volume 108, Number 4
• Publisher: Oxford University Press (OUP): Policy B - Oxford Open Option B | 2014-04-01, Pages 185-197
• Type of Work: Article | Final Publisher PDF
• Publisher DOI: http://doi.org/10.1093/trstmh/tru026
• Subjects: Health Sciences, Pathology; Environmental Sciences
• Keywords: Science & Technology; Life Sciences & Biomedicine; Public, Environmental & Occupational Health; Tropical Medicine; PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH, SCI; TROPICAL MEDICINE; Dengue; Filariasis; Malaria; Mosquito-borne pathogen transmission; Vector control; West Nile virus; DENGUE VIRUS TRANSMISSION; ENTOMOLOGICAL INOCULATION RATE; PLASMODIUM-FALCIPARUM MALARIA; MATHEMATICAL-MODELS; HUMAN MOVEMENT; LYMPHATIC FILARIASIS; POPULATION-DYNAMICS; ANOPHELES-GAMBIAE; AEDES-AEGYPTI; VECTOR

Abstract

Mosquito-borne diseases pose some of the greatest challenges in public health, especially in tropical and sub-tropical regions of theworld. Efforts to control these diseases have been underpinned by a theoretical framework developed for malaria by Ross and Macdonald, including models, metrics for measuring transmission, and theory of control that identifies key vulnerabilities in the transmission cycle. That framework, especially Macdonald's formula for R 0 and its entomological derivative, vectorial capacity, are nowused to study dynamics and design interventions for many mosquito-borne diseases. A systematic review of 388 models published between 1970 and 2010 found that the vast majority adopted the Ross-Macdonald assumption of homogeneous transmission in a well-mixed population. Studies comparing models and data question these assumptions and point to the capacity to model heterogeneous, focal transmission as the most important but relatively unexplored component in current theory. Fine-scale heterogeneity causes transmission dynamics to be nonlinear, and poses problems for modeling, epidemiology and measurement. Novel mathematical approaches show how heterogeneity arises from the biology and the landscape on which the processes of mosquito biting and pathogen transmission unfold. Emerging theory focuses attention on the ecological and social context formosquito blood feeding, themovement of both hosts and mosquitoes, and the relevant spatial scales for measuring transmission and for modeling dynamics and control. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.