Estimates and 25-year trends of the global burden of disease attributable to ambient air pollution: an analysis of data from the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2015

• Authors: Aaron J Cohen, Health Effects Institute; Michael Brauer, The University of British Columbia; Richard Burnett, Health Canada; H Ross Anderson, University of London; Joseph Frostad, Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation; Kara Estep, Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation; Kalpana Balakrishnan, Sri Ramachandra University; Bert Brunekreef, Utrecht University; Lalit Dandona, Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation; Rakhi Dandona, Public Health Foundation of India; Valery Feigin, Auckland University of Technology; Greg Freedman, Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation; Bryan Hubbell, United States Environmental Protection Agency; Amelia Jobling, University of Bath; Haidong Kan, Fudan University; Luke Knibbs, University of Queensland; Yang Liu, Emory University; Randall Martin, Dalhousie University; Lidia Morawska, Queensland University of Technology QUT; C Arden Pope, Brigham Young University; Hwashin Shin, Health Canada; Kurt Straif, International Agency for Research on Cancer; Gavin Shaddick, University of Bath; Matthew Thomas, University of Bath; Rita van Dingenen, European Commission; Aaron van Donkelaar, Dalhousie University; Theo Vos, Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation; Christopher J L Murray, Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation; Mohammad H Forouzanfar, Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
• Journal Title: Lancet Global Health
• Volume: Volume 389, Number 10082
• Publisher: Elsevier: Creative Commons | 2017-05-13, Pages 1907-1918
• Type of Work: Article | Final Publisher PDF
• Publisher DOI: http://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(17)30505-6
• Subjects: Health Sciences, Public Health; Environmental Sciences

Abstract

Background Exposure to ambient air pollution increases morbidity and mortality, and is a leading contributor to global disease burden. We explored spatial and temporal trends in mortality and burden of disease attributable to ambient air pollution from 1990 to 2015 at global, regional, and country levels. Methods We estimated global population-weighted mean concentrations of particle mass with aerodynamic diameter less than 2·5 μm (PM2·5) and ozone at an approximate 11 km × 11 km resolution with satellite-based estimates, chemical transport models, and ground-level measurements. Using integrated exposure–response functions for each cause of death, we estimated the relative risk of mortality from ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, lung cancer, and lower respiratory infections from epidemiological studies using non-linear exposure–response functions spanning the global range of exposure. Findings Ambient PM2·5 was the fifth-ranking mortality risk factor in 2015. Exposure to PM2·5 caused 4·2 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·7 million to 4·8 million) deaths and 103·1 million (90·8 million 115·1 million) disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2015, representing 7·6% of total global deaths and 4·2% of global DALYs, 59% of these in east and south Asia. Deaths attributable to ambient PM2·5 increased from 3·5 million (95% UI 3·0 million to 4·0 million) in 1990 to 4·2 million (3·7 million to 4·8 million) in 2015. Exposure to ozone caused an additional 254 000 (95% UI 97 000–422 000) deaths and a loss of 4·1 million (1·6 million to 6·8 million) DALYs from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in 2015. Interpretation Ambient air pollution contributed substantially to the global burden of disease in 2015, which increased over the past 25 years, due to population ageing, changes in non-communicable disease rates, and increasing air pollution in low-income and middle-income countries. Modest reductions in burden will occur in the most polluted countries unless PM2·5 values are decreased substantially, but there is potential for substantial health benefits from exposure reduction. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Health Effects Institute.