Estimating tuberculosis cases and their economic costs averted in the United States over the past two decades

• Authors: Kenneth Castro, Emory University; S.M. Marks, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; M.P. Chen, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; A.N. Hill, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; J.E. Becerra, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; R Miramontes, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; C.A. Winston, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; T.R. Navin, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; R.H. Pratt, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; K.H. Young, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; P.A. LoBue, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
• Journal Title: International Journal of Tuberculosis and Lung Disease
• Volume: Volume 20, Number 7
• Publisher: International Union Against Tuberculosis and Lung Disease | 2016-07-01, Pages 926-933
• Type of Work: Article | Post-print: After Peer Review
• Publisher DOI: http://doi.org/10.5588/ijtld.15.1001
• Subjects: Health Sciences, Epidemiology; Health Sciences, Public Health
• Keywords: Science & Technology; Life Sciences & Biomedicine; Infectious Diseases; Respiratory System; TB; public health benefits and costs; low incidence country; United States; MULTIDRUG-RESISTANT TUBERCULOSIS; ANTIRETROVIRAL THERAPY; TRENDS; IMPACT

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Following a concerted public health response to the resurgence of tuberculosis (TB) in the United States in the late 1980s, annual TB incidence decreased substantially. However, no estimates exist of the number and cost savings of TB cases averted. METHODS : TB cases averted in the United States during 1995-2014 were estimated: Scenario 1 used a static 1992 case rate; Scenario 2 applied the 1992 rate to foreign-born cases, and a pre-resurgence 5.1% annual decline to US-born cases; and a statistical model assessed human immunodeficiency virus and TB program indices. We applied the cost of illness to estimate the societal benefits (costs averted) in 2014 dollars. RESULT S : During 1992-2014, 368 184 incident TB cases were reported, and cases decreased by two thirds during that period. In the scenarios and statistical model, TB cases averted during 1995-2014 ranged from approximately 145 000 to 319 000. The societal benefits of averted TB cases ranged from US3.1 to US6.7 billion, excluding deaths, and from US6.7 to US14.5 billion, including deaths. CONCLUS IONS : Coordinated efforts in TB control and prevention in the United States yielded a remarkable number of TB cases averted and societal economic benefits. We illustrate the value of concerted action and targeted public health funding.