High-fidelity models are increasingly used to predict, and guide decision making. Prior work has emphasized the importance of replication in ensuring reliable modeling, and has yielded important replication strategies. However, this work is based on relatively simple theory generating models, and its lessons might not translate to high-fidelity models used for decision support. Using NetLogo we replicate a recently published high-fidelity model examining the effects of a HIV biomedical intervention. We use a modular approach to build our model from the ground up, and provide examples of the replication process investigating the replication of two sub-modules as well as the overall simulation experiment. For the first module, we achieved numerical identity during replication, whereas we obtained distributional equivalence in replicating the second module. We achieved relational equivalence among the overall model behaviors, with a 0.98 correlation across the two implementations for our outcome measure even without strictly following the original model in the formation of the sexual network. Our results show that replication of high-fidelity models is feasible when following a set of systematic strategies that leverage the modularity, and highlight the role of replication standards, modular testing, and functional code in facilitating such strategies.

Background Prevention of bacterial sexually transmitted infections (STIs) among men who have sex with men (MSM) requires timely disease detection, but this is complicated by asymptomatic infection. We estimated screening/testing rates by symptomatic status to evaluate adherence to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention STI screening guidelines. Methods In a cross-sectional study of 2572 US MSM aged 15 to 65 years in 2017 to 2018, we measured the reported number of asymptomatic STI screens in the past 2 years versus tests prompted by disease symptoms. Using negative binominal regression within a hierarchical Bayesian framework, we estimated yearly rates of asymptomatic screening and symptomatic testing by geographic, demographic, and behavioral factors. Results Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) status was most strongly associated with all testing/screening frequency (incidence rate ratio [IRR], 1.72; 95% credible interval [Crl], 1.49, 1.97). The HIV-uninfected MSM had 0.14 (95% credible interval [CrI], 0.12-0.17) symptomatic tests and 0.88 (95% CrI, 0.77-1.01) asymptomatic screens per year. The HIV-infected MSM had 0.25 (95% CrI, 0.18-0.35) symptomatic tests and 1.53 (95% CrI, 1.24-1.88) asymptomatic screens per year. Rates of asymptomatic screening were higher among black compared with white MSM (IRR, 1.41; 95% CrI, 1.15-1.73), but weakly associated with number of past-year sexual partners (IRR, 1.01; 95% CrI, 1.00-1.01). Overall, 85% to 90% of diagnostic events were asymptomatic screens. Conclusions Self-reported rates of STI screening were close to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's recommended overall annual screening frequency, but with gaps defined by demographics and behavioral risk. Targeted screening efforts may be indicated specifically for younger MSM and those with multiple partners.

In this paper, we present an overview and descriptive results from the first egocentric network study of men who have sex with men (MSM) from across the United States: the ARTnet study. ARTnet was designed to support prevention research for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and other sexually transmitted infections (STIs) that are transmitted across partnership networks. ARTnet implemented a population-based egocentric network study design that sampled egos from the target population and asked them to report on the number, attributes, and timing of their sexual partnerships. Such data provide the foundation needed for parameterizing stochastic network models that are used for disease projection and intervention planning. ARTnet collected data online from 2017 to 2019, with a final sample of 4904 participants who reported on 16198 sexual partnerships. The aims of this paper were to characterize the joint distribution of three network parameters needed for modeling: degree distributions, assortative mixing, and partnership age, with heterogeneity by partnership type (main, casual and one-time), demography, and geography. Participants had an average of 1.19 currently active partnerships (“mean degree”), which was higher for casual partnerships (0.74) than main partnerships (0.45). The mean rate of one-time partnership acquisition was 0.16 per week (8.5 partners per year). Main partnerships lasted 272.5 weeks on average, while casual partnerships lasted 133.0 weeks. There was strong but heterogenous assortative mixing by race/ethnicity for all groups. The mean absolute age difference for all partnership types was 9.5 years, with main partners differing by 6.3 years compared to 10.8 years for casual partners. Our analysis suggests that MSM may be at sustained risk for HIV/STI acquisition and transmission through high network degree of sexual partnerships. The ARTnet network study provides a robust and reproducible foundation for understanding the dynamics of HIV/STI epidemiology among U.S. MSM and supporting the implementation science that seeks to address persistent challenges in HIV/STI prevention.

BACKGROUND: Sexually transmitted infections (STIs) are associated with an increased risk of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) acquisition and transmission. We estimated the proportion of HIV incidence among men who have sex with men attributable to infection with the 2 most common bacterial STIs, Neisseria gonorrhoeae (NG) and Chlamydia trachomatis (CT). METHODS: We used a stochastic, agent-based model of a sexual network of MSM with cocirculating HIV, NG, and CT infections. Relative risk (RR) multipliers, specific to anatomic site of infection, modified the risk of HIV transmission and acquisition based on STI status. We estimated the effect of NG and CT on HIV incidence overall and on HIV acquisition and HIV transmission separately. Each scenario was simulated for 10 years. The population attributable fraction (PAF) was determined for each combination of RRs by comparing the incidence in the final year of a scenario to a scenario in which the RRs associated with NG and CT were set to 1.0. RESULTS: Overall, 10.2% (interquartile range [IQR], 7.9-12.4) of HIV infections were attributable to NG/CT infection. Then in sensitivity analyses, the PAF for HIV transmission ranged from 3.1% (IQR, 0.5-5.2) to 20.4% (IQR, 17.8-22.5) and the PAF for HIV acquisition ranged from 2.0% (IQR, -0.7 to 4.3) to 13.8% (IQR, 11.7-16.0). CONCLUSIONS: Despite challenges in estimating the causal impact of NG/CT on HIV risk, modeling is an alternative approach to quantifying plausible ranges of effects given uncertainty in the biological cofactors. Our estimates represent idealized public health interventions in which STI could be maximally prevented, setting targets for real-world STI interventions that seek to reduce HIV incidence.

During pregnancy and postpartum, women in high HIV prevalence regions continue to be at high risk for acquiring HIV, due to both behavioral and biological mechanisms, despite declines in coital frequency as a pregnancy advances. We estimated differences in rates of partnership concurrency for men with and without pregnant or postpartum sexual partners. We used monthly retrospective panel data from Ghana from three perspectives: couple-level data, female reports of pregnancy and male partner concurrency, and male reports of concurrent partnerships and female partner pregnancy. Coital frequency increased during the first trimester and then declined with advancing pregnancy. However, in all three analyses, there was no compelling evidence that men with pregnant or postpartum partners had additional concurrent partnerships. Our findings suggest that even though women’s sexual activity likely declines during pregnancy and postpartum, they may not be at increased risk of HIV/STI due to their partners seeking additional partnerships.

Background: Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is highly efficacious for preventing HIV but has not yet been brought to scale among at-risk persons. In several clinical trials in urban areas, technology-based interventions have shown a positive impact on PrEP adherence. In rural and small-town areas in the United States, which often do not have geographically proximal access to PrEP providers, additional support may be needed. This may be particularly true for younger persons who are more likely to face multiple barriers to accessing PrEP services. Home-based care, accomplished through a tailored mobile phone app, specimen self-collection (SSC), and interactive video consultations, could increase both PrEP initiation and persistence in care. Objective: The goal of this study is to assess the initiation and persistence in PrEP care for those randomized to a home-care intervention (electronic PrEP, ePrEP) relative to those assigned to the standard of care (control) condition. We will conduct additional assessments, including quantitative and qualitative analyses, to contextualize trial results and facilitate scale-up. Methods: This 2-arm, randomized controlled trial will enroll young men who have sex with men (YMSM) aged between 18 and 24 years from rural areas of Georgia, Mississippi, and North Carolina. The trial will seek to recruit a diverse sample, targeting 50% participation among highly impacted groups of black or Latino men who have sex with men. Intervention participants will receive a study app that incorporates a messaging platform, a scheduling and milestone-based tracking system for PrEP care progress, electronic behavioral surveys, and interactive video consultations with a clinician. Complemented by SSC kits mailed to laboratories for standard PrEP-related monitoring, the ePrEP system will allow participants to access PrEP care without leaving their homes. YMSM randomized to the control condition will receive a listing of nearest local PrEP providers to receive standard PrEP care. Both groups will complete quarterly electronic surveys. The primary outcome, assessed at 6 and 12 months after randomization, will be the difference in the proportion of intervention versus control participants that achieve protective levels of the active metabolite of oral PrEP (tenofovir diphosphate in dried blood spots). Results: Enrollment will begin in May 2019, with study completion in 2022. Conclusions: This trial will determine whether home PrEP care provided through an app-based platform is an efficacious means of expanding access to PrEP care for a diverse group of YMSM in rural and small-town areas of the United States.

Background:A 2015 CDC analysis estimated that 24.7% of sexually active men who have sex with men (MSM) had indications for HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) based on 2014 US Public Health Service (USPHS) clinical practice guidelines. Given that the USPHS revised these guidelines in 2017, updated estimates of the fraction of MSM indicated for PrEP overall and stratified by demographic factors and geography are needed to scale-up PrEP for MSM in the US.Methods:We conducted a national web-based study of 4904 MSM aged 15-65 who had ever had sex with another man between July 2017 and January 2019. We estimated the percentage of HIV-negative, sexually active MSM meeting USPHS indications for PrEP by demographic category.Results:Of 3511 sexually active, HIV-negative MSM, 34.0% (95% confidence interval: 32.4 to 35.6) met USPHS indications for PrEP, with percentages consistent across US census region and varying slightly by race/ethnicity (Black: 32.2%, White: 33.7%, Hispanic: 36.4%, Other: 33.6%). Among individuals meeting USPHS PrEP indications, 93.5% reported condomless anal intercourse in the prior 6 months. Among all survey respondents, PrEP eligibility was lowest among non-Hispanic black (18.4%) and younger respondents (15-17: 4.1%; 18-24: 18.1%).Conclusions:Estimated percentages of MSM meeting indications for PrEP exceeded the previous CDC estimate across race/ethnicity, age, and census regions, with one-third of adult, sexually active, HIV-negative MSM exhibiting indications for PrEP. This study suggests, given current guidelines for PrEP indications, that a different fraction of eligible MSM could be receiving PrEP than previously estimated.

Short-term mobility is often associated with increased sexual risk behavior. Mobile individuals often have higher rates of sexual risk behavior compared to non-mobile individuals, but the reasons why are not clear. Using monthly retrospective panel data from 202 men and 282 women in Agbogbloshie, Ghana, we tested whether short-term mobility was associated with changes in coital frequency, and whether the association was due to the act of travel in the given month (e.g., enabling higher risk behavior), the reason for travel, or an individual’s travel propensity at other times in the year. Overnight travel specifically to visit family or friends, or for education, health, or other reasons, was associated with increased coital frequency for men. However, men with higher travel propensities had lower overall coital frequency and the act of traveling enabled more sex only for the most frequent male travelers. Men who seldom traveled had much higher coital frequency, but the act of traveling was not associated with additional sex acts. For women, travel for education, health, or other reasons increased coital frequency. Occasional female travelers had slightly more sex acts compared to non-mobile women, and the act of traveling for these women was associated with slight increases in coital frequency, supporting the enabling hypothesis. Highly mobile women had fewer sex acts per month on average. Our findings suggest that mobility characteristics measured on a broad temporal scale, as well as the reason for mobility, are important to understand the relationship between short-term mobility and sexual behavior.

Background: Cruise ships provide an ideal setting for transmission of SARS-CoV-2, given the socially dense exposure environment. Aim: To provide a comprehensive review of COVID-19 outbreaks on cruise ships. Methods: PubMed was searched for COVID-19 cases associated with cruise ships between January and October 2020. A list of cruise ships with COVID-19 was cross-referenced with the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s list of cruise ships associated with a COVID-19 case within 14 days of disembarkation. News articles were also searched for epidemiological information. Narratives of COVID-19 outbreaks on ships with over 100 cases are presented. Results: Seventy-nine ships and 104 unique voyages were associated with COVID-19 cases before 1 October 2020. Nineteen ships had more than one voyage with a case of COVID-19. The median number of cases per ship was three (interquartile range (IQR): 1–17.8), with two notable outliers: the Diamond Princess and the Ruby Princess, which had 712 and 907 cases, respectively. The median attack rate for COVID-19 was 0.2% (IQR: 0.03–1.5), although this distribution was right-skewed with a mean attack rate of 3.7%; 25.9% (27/104) of voyages had at least one COVID-19-associated death. Outbreaks involving only crew occurred later than outbreaks involving guests and crew. Conclusions: In the absence of mitigation measures, COVID-19 can spread easily on cruise ships in a susceptible population because of the confined space and high-density contact networks. This environment can create superspreader events and facilitate international spread.

BACKGROUND: Volatility in sexual contact rates has been recognized as an important factor influencing HIV transmission dynamics. One-time partnerships may be particularly important given the potential to quickly accumulate large number of contacts. Yet, empirical data documenting individual variation in contact rates remain rare. This study provides much needed data on temporal variation in one-time partners to better understand behavioral dynamics and improve the accuracy of transmission models. METHODS: Data for this study were obtained from a longitudinal cohort study of young men who have sex with men and transgender women in Chicago. Participants provided sexual network data every 6 months for 2 years. A series of random effects models examined variation in one-time partnership rates and disaggregated within and between associations of exposure variables. Exposure variables included prior number of one-time partners, number of casual partners, and having a main partner. RESULTS: Results indicated substantial between-person and within-person variation in one-time partners. Casual partnerships were positively associated and main partnerships negatively associated with one-time partnership rates. There remained a small positive association between prior one-time partnerships and the current number of one-time partnerships. CONCLUSIONS: Despite the preponderance of a low number of one-time partners, substantial variation in one-time partnership rates exists among young men who have sex with men and transgender women. Accordingly, focusing on high contact rate individuals alone may be insufficient to identify periods of highest risk. Future studies should use these estimates to more accurately model how volatility impacts HIV transmission and better understand how this variation influences intervention effectiveness.