We report a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of coronary artery disease (CAD) incorporating nearly a quarter of a million cases, in which existing studies are integrated with data from cohorts of white, Black and Hispanic individuals from the Million Veteran Program. We document near equivalent heritability of CAD across multiple ancestral groups, identify 95 novel loci, including nine on the X chromosome, detect eight loci of genome-wide significance in Black and Hispanic individuals, and demonstrate that two common haplotypes at the 9p21 locus are responsible for risk stratification in all populations except those of African origin, in which these haplotypes are virtually absent. Moreover, in the largest GWAS for angiographically derived coronary atherosclerosis performed to date, we find 15 loci of genome-wide significance that robustly overlap with established loci for clinical CAD. Phenome-wide association analyses of novel loci and polygenic risk scores (PRSs) augment signals related to insulin resistance, extend pleiotropic associations of these loci to include smoking and family history, and precisely document the markedly reduced transferability of existing PRSs to Black individuals. Downstream integrative analyses reinforce the critical roles of vascular endothelial, fibroblast, and smooth muscle cells in CAD susceptibility, but also point to a shared biology between atherosclerosis and oncogenesis. This study highlights the value of diverse populations in further characterizing the genetic architecture of CAD.

Stroke is the second leading cause of death and disability worldwide. Stroke prevalence varies by sex and ancestry, possibly due to genetic heterogeneity between subgroups. We performed a genome-wide meta-analysis of 16 biobanks across multiple ancestries to study the genetics of ischemic stroke (60,176 cases, 1,310,725 controls) as part of the Global Biobank Meta-analysis Initiative (GBMI) and further combined the results with previously published MegaStroke. Five novel loci for ischemic stroke (LAMC1, CALCRL, PLSCR1, CDKN1A, and SWAP70) were identified after replication in four additional datasets. One previously reported locus showed significant ancestry heterogeneity (ABO), and one showed significant sex heterogeneity (ALDH2). The ALDH2 association was male specific (males p = 1.67e−24, females p = 0.126) and was additionally observed only in the East Asian ancestry (male) samples. These findings emphasize the need for more diverse datasets with large sample sizes to further understand the genetic predisposition of stroke in different ancestry and sex groups.

Identification of individuals at highest risk of coronary artery disease (CAD)—ideally before onset—remains an important public health need. Prior studies have developed genome-wide polygenic scores to enable risk stratification, reflecting the substantial inherited component to CAD risk. Here we develop a new and significantly improved polygenic score for CAD, termed GPSMult, that incorporates genome-wide association data across five ancestries for CAD (>269,000 cases and >1,178,000 controls) and ten CAD risk factors. GPSMult strongly associated with prevalent CAD (odds ratio per standard deviation 2.14, 95% confidence interval 2.10–2.19, P < 0.001) in UK Biobank participants of European ancestry, identifying 20.0% of the population with 3-fold increased risk and conversely 13.9% with 3-fold decreased risk as compared with those in the middle quintile. GPSMult was also associated with incident CAD events (hazard ratio per standard deviation 1.73, 95% confidence interval 1.70–1.76, P < 0.001), identifying 3% of healthy individuals with risk of future CAD events equivalent to those with existing disease and significantly improving risk discrimination and reclassification. Across multiethnic, external validation datasets inclusive of 33,096, 124,467, 16,433 and 16,874 participants of African, European, Hispanic and South Asian ancestry, respectively, GPSMult demonstrated increased strength of associations across all ancestries and outperformed all available previously published CAD polygenic scores. These data contribute a new GPSMult for CAD to the field and provide a generalizable framework for how large-scale integration of genetic association data for CAD and related traits from diverse populations can meaningfully improve polygenic risk prediction.

Pharmacologic clinical trials for heart failure with preserved ejection fraction have been largely unsuccessful as compared to those for heart failure with reduced ejection fraction. Whether differences in the genetic underpinnings of these major heart failure subtypes may provide insights into the disparate outcomes of clinical trials remains unknown. We utilize a large, uniformly phenotyped, single cohort of heart failure sub-classified into heart failure with reduced and with preserved ejection fractions based on current clinical definitions, to conduct detailed genetic analyses of the two heart failure sub-types. We find different genetic architectures and distinct genetic association profiles between heart failure with reduced and with preserved ejection fraction suggesting differences in underlying pathobiology. The modest genetic discovery for heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (one locus) compared to heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (13 loci) despite comparable sample sizes indicates that clinically defined heart failure with preserved ejection fraction likely represents the amalgamation of several, distinct pathobiological entities. Development of consensus sub-phenotyping of heart failure with preserved ejection fraction is paramount to better dissect the underlying genetic signals and contributors to this highly prevalent condition.

Previous genome-wide association studies (GWASs) of stroke — the second leading cause of death worldwide — were conducted predominantly in populations of European ancestry1,2. Here, in cross-ancestry GWAS meta-analyses of 110,182 patients who have had a stroke (five ancestries, 33% non-European) and 1,503,898 control individuals, we identify association signals for stroke and its subtypes at 89 (61 new) independent loci: 60 in primary inverse-variance-weighted analyses and 29 in secondary meta-regression and multitrait analyses. On the basis of internal cross-ancestry validation and an independent follow-up in 89,084 additional cases of stroke (30% non-European) and 1,013,843 control individuals, 87% of the primary stroke risk loci and 60% of the secondary stroke risk loci were replicated (P < 0.05). Effect sizes were highly correlated across ancestries. Cross-ancestry fine-mapping, in silico mutagenesis analysis3, and transcriptome-wide and proteome-wide association analyses revealed putative causal genes (such as SH3PXD2A and FURIN) and variants (such as at GRK5 and NOS3). Using a three-pronged approach4, we provide genetic evidence for putative drug effects, highlighting F11, KLKB1, PROC, GP1BA, LAMC2 and VCAM1 as possible targets, with drugs already under investigation for stroke for F11 and PROC. A polygenic score integrating cross-ancestry and ancestry-specific stroke GWASs with vascular-risk factor GWASs (integrative polygenic scores) strongly predicted ischaemic stroke in populations of European, East Asian and African ancestry5. Stroke genetic risk scores were predictive of ischaemic stroke independent of clinical risk factors in 52,600 clinical-trial participants with cardiometabolic disease. Our results provide insights to inform biology, reveal potential drug targets and derive genetic risk prediction tools across ancestries.

We conduct a large-scale meta-analysis of heart failure genome-wide association studies (GWAS) consisting of over 90,000 heart failure cases and more than 1 million control individuals of European ancestry to uncover novel genetic determinants for heart failure. Using the GWAS results and blood protein quantitative loci, we perform Mendelian randomization and colocalization analyses on human proteins to provide putative causal evidence for the role of druggable proteins in the genesis of heart failure. We identify 39 genome-wide significant heart failure risk variants, of which 18 are previously unreported. Using a combination of Mendelian randomization proteomics and genetic cis-only colocalization analyses, we identify 10 additional putatively causal genes for heart failure. Findings from GWAS and Mendelian randomization-proteomics identify seven (CAMK2D, PRKD1, PRKD3, MAPK3, TNFSF12, APOC3 and NAE1) proteins as potential targets for interventions to be used in primary prevention of heart failure.

Aims: To assess the prevalence and clinical implications of “mismatches” between HbA1c and glucose levels in the United States across the life course. Methods: Participants ages 12–79 years from U.S. National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2005–2016 without known diagnosis of diabetes and who had a 75 g oral glucose tolerance test were included. Previously undiagnosed diabetes (DM), prediabetes, and normal glucose metabolism (NGM) were defined using American Diabetes Association cut-points. Mismatches were defined by the hemoglobin glycation index (HGI). Results: In 10,361 participants, 5% and 41% had diabetes and prediabetes, respectively, by fasting or 2-hour glucose criteria. By HbA1c criteria, the high HGI tertile consisted of mostly abnormal classification (3% DM, 52% prediabetes) and the low HGI tertile contained mostly normal classification (78% NGM). Across all ages, 15% (weighted: 30 million individuals) had clinically significant mismatches of HGI magnitude ≥+0.5% (i.e., high mismatch) or ≤−0.5% (low mismatch). Mismatch was most common in older adults and non-Hispanic Black participants. Conclusions: Mismatches of clinically significant magnitude could lead to HbA1c-related misdiagnosis or inappropriate management in up to 30 million Americans. Older adults, non-Hispanic Black individuals, and others with high mismatches may benefit from complementing HbA1c with additional diagnostic and management strategies.

Aims: To examine the association of HbA1c and glucose levels with incident diabetic retinopathy according to black African or white European ancestry. Methods: In this retrospective cohort study of 202 500 US Veterans with diabetes (2000–2014), measures included HbA1c, outpatient random serum/plasma glucose, and incident retinopathy [conversion from negative to ≥2 positive evaluations (ICD-9 codes), without a subsequent negative]. Results: At baseline, the study population had a mean age of 59.3 years, their mean BMI was 31.9 kg/m2, HbA1c level was 57 mmol/mol (7.4%) and glucose level was 8.8 mmol/l, and 77% were of white European ancestry (white individuals) and 21% of black African ancestry (black individuals). HbA1c was 0.3% higher in black vs white individuals (P < 0.001), adjusting for baseline age, sex, BMI, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), haemoglobin, and average systolic blood pressure and glucose. Over 11 years, incident retinopathy occurred in 9% of black and 7% of white individuals, but black individuals had higher HbA1c, glucose, and systolic blood pressure (all P < 0.001); adjusted for these factors, incident retinopathy was reduced in black vs white individuals (P < 0.001). The population incidence of retinopathy (7%) was associated with higher mean baseline HbA1c in individuals with black vs white ancestry [63 mmol/mol (7.9%) vs 58 mmol/mol (7.5%); P < 0.001)], but with similar baseline glucose levels (9.0 vs 9.0 mmol/l; P = 0.660, all adjusted for baseline age, sex and BMI). Conclusions: Since retinopathy occurs at higher HbA1c levels in black people for a given level of average plasma glucose, strategies may be needed to individualize the interpretation of HbA1c measurements.

BACKGROUND: Heart failure (HF) is a serious condition with increasing prevalence, high morbidity, and increased mortality. Obesity is an established risk factor for cardiovascular diseases, including HF. Fluctuation in body mass index (BMI) has shown a higher risk of cardiovascular outcomes. We investigated the association between BMI variability and incident HF. METHODS: In the UK Biobank, we established a prospective cohort after excluding participants with prevalent HF or cancer at enrollment. A total of 99,368 White (British, Irish, and any other white background) participants with ≥ 3 BMI measures during > 2 years preceding enrollment were included, with a median follow-up of 12.5 years. The within-participant variability of BMI was evaluated using standardized standard deviation (SD) and coefficient of variation (CV). The association of BMI variability with incident HF was assessed using Fine and Gray's competing risk model, and adjusted for age, sex, smoking history, alcohol consumption, diabetes, hypertension, history of heart attack, stroke, atrial fibrillation, lipids, estimated glomerular filtration rate and mean BMI per individual. RESULTS: In the fully adjusted model, higher BMI variability measured in both SD and CV were significantly associated with higher risk in HF incidence (SD: Hazard Ratio [HR] 1.05, 95% Confidence Interval [CI] 1.02 - 1.07, p = 0.0002; CV: HR 1.06, 95% CI 1.04 - 1.09, p < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: Longitudinal health records capture BMI fluctuation, which independently predicts HF incidence. Integration of long-term BMI and other routinely measured health factors may improve risk prediction of HF and other cardiovascular outcomes.

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a growing cause of chronic liver disease. Using a proxy NAFLD definition of chronic elevation of alanine aminotransferase (cALT) levels without other liver diseases, we performed a multiancestry genome-wide association study (GWAS) in the Million Veteran Program (MVP) including 90,408 cALT cases and 128,187 controls. Seventy-seven loci exceeded genome-wide significance, including 25 without prior NAFLD or alanine aminotransferase associations, with one additional locus identified in European American-only and two in African American-only analyses (P < 5 × 10−8). External replication in histology-defined NAFLD cohorts (7,397 cases and 56,785 controls) or radiologic imaging cohorts (n = 44,289) replicated 17 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) (P < 6.5 × 10−4), of which 9 were new (TRIB1, PPARG, MTTP, SERPINA1, FTO, IL1RN, COBLL1, APOH and IFI30). Pleiotropy analysis showed that 61 of 77 multiancestry and all 17 replicated SNPs were jointly associated with metabolic and/or inflammatory traits, revealing a complex model of genetic architecture. Our approach integrating cALT, histology and imaging reveals new insights into genetic liability to NAFLD.