Background Despite the success of rotavirus vaccines over the last decade, rotavirus remains a leading cause of severe diarrheal disease among young children. Further progress in reducing the burden of disease is inhibited, in part, by vaccine underperformance in certain settings. Early trials suggested that oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV), when administered concomitantly with rotavirus vaccine, reduces rotavirus seroconversion rates after the first rotavirus dose with modest or nonsignificant interference after completion of the full rotavirus vaccine course. Our study aimed to identify a range of individual-level characteristics, including concomitant receipt of OPV, that affect rotavirus vaccine immunogenicity in high- and low-childmortality settings, controlling for individual- and country-level factors. Our central hypothesis was that OPV administered concomitantly with rotavirus vaccine reduced rotavirus vaccine immunogenicity. Methods and findings Pooled, individual-level data from GlaxoSmithKline's Phase II and III clinical trials of the monovalent rotavirus vaccine (RV1), Rotarix, were analyzed, including 7,280 vaccinated infants (5-17 weeks of age at first vaccine dose) from 22 trials and 33 countries/territories (5 countries/territories with high, 13 with moderately low, and 15 with very low child mortality). Two standard markers for immune response were examined including antirotavirus immunoglobulin A (IgA) seroconversion (defined as the appearance of serum antirotavirus IgA antibodies in subjects initially seronegative) and serum antirotavirus IgA titer, both collected approximately 4-12 weeks after administration of the last rotavirus vaccine dose. Mixed-effect logistic regression and mixed-effect linear regression of log-transformed data were used to identify individual- and country-level predictors of seroconversion (dichotomous) and antibody titer (continuous), respectively. Infants in high-child-mortality settings had lower odds of seroconverting compared with infants in low-child-mortality settings (odds ratio [OR] = 0.48, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.43-0.53, p < 0.001). Similarly, among those who seroconverted, infants in high-child-mortality settings had lower IgA titers compared with infants in low-child-mortality settings (mean difference [β] = 0.83, 95% CI 0.77-0.90, p < 0.001). Infants who received OPV concomitantly with both their first and their second doses of rotavirus vaccine had 0.63 times the odds of seroconverting (OR = 0.63, 95% CI 0.47-0.84, p = 0.002) compared with infants who received OPV but not concomitantly with either dose. In contrast, among infants who seroconverted, OPV concomitantly administered with both the first and second rotavirus vaccine doses was found to be positively associated with antirotavirus IgA titer (β = 1.28, 95% CI 1.07-1.53, p = 0.009). Our findings may have some limitations in terms of generalizability to routine use of rotavirus vaccine because the analysis was limited to healthy infants receiving RV1 in clinical trial settings. Conclusions Our findings suggest that OPV given concomitantly with RV1 was a substantial contributor to reduced antirotavirus IgA seroconversion, and this interference was apparent after the second vaccine dose of RV1, as with the original clinical trials that our reanalysis is based on. However, our findings do suggest that the forthcoming withdrawal of OPV from the infant immunization schedule globally has the potential to improve RV1 performance.

Introduction: Vaccination has significantly reduced morbidity and mortality resulting from rotavirus infection worldwide. However, rotavirus vaccine efficacy (VE) appears to wane over the first 2 years since vaccination, particularly in developing countries. Statistical methods for detecting VE waning and estimating its rate have been used in a few studies, but comparisons of methods for evaluating VE waning have not yet been performed. In this work we present and compare three methods–Durham’s method, Tian’s method, and time-dependent covariate (TDC) method–based on generalizations of the Cox proportional hazard model. Methods: We developed a new stochastic agent-based simulation model to generate data from a hypothetical rotavirus vaccine trial where the protective efficacy of the vaccine may vary over time. Input parameters to the simulation model were obtained from studies on rotavirus infections in four developing countries. We applied each of the methods to four simulated datasets and compared the type-1 error probabilities and the powers of the resulting statistical tests. We also compared estimated and true values of VE over time. Results: Durham’s method had the highest power of detecting true VE waning of the three methods. This method also provided quite accurate estimates of VE in each period and of the per-period drop in VE. Conclusions: Durham’s method is somewhat more powerful than the other two Cox proportional hazards model-based methods for detecting VE waning and provides more information about the temporal behavior of VE.

Background: A correlate of protection for rotavirus gastroenteritis would facilitate rapid assessment of vaccination strategies and the next generation of rotavirus vaccines. We aimed to quantify a threshold of postvaccine serum antirotavirus immunoglobulin A (IgA) as an individual-level immune correlate of protection against rotavirus gastroenteritis. Methods: Individual-level data on 5074 infants in 9 GlaxoSmithKline Rotarix Phase 2/3 clinical trials from 16 countries were pooled. Cox proportional hazard models were fit to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) describing the relationship between IgA thresholds and occurrence of rotavirus gastroenteritis. Results: Seroconversion (IgA≥20 U/mL) conferred substantial protection against any and severe rotavirus gastroenteritis to age 1 year. In low child mortality settings, seroconversion provided near perfect protection against severe rotavirus gastroenteritis (HR,0.04; 95% confidence interval [CI],. 01-.31). In high child mortality settings, seroconversion dramatically reduced the risk of severe rotavirus gastroenteritis (HR, 0.46; 95% CI,. 25-.86). As IgA threshold increased, risk of rotavirus gastroenteritis generally decreased. A given IgA threshold provided better protection in low compared to high child mortality settings. Discussion: Postvaccination antirotavirus IgA is a valuable correlate of protection against rotavirus gastroenteritis to age 1 year. Seroconversion provides an informative threshold for assessing rotavirus vaccine performance.

Background: Rotavirus is the leading cause of severe diarrhea among children worldwide, and vaccines can reduce morbidity and mortality by 50–98%. The test-negative control (TNC) study design is increasingly used for evaluating the effectiveness of vaccines against rotavirus and other vaccine-preventable diseases. In this study design, symptomatic patients who seek medical care are tested for the pathogen of interest. Those who test positive (negative) are classified as cases (controls). Methods: We use a probability model to evaluate the bias of estimates of rotavirus vaccine effectiveness (VE) against rotavirus diarrhea resulting in hospitalization in the presence of possible confounding and selection biases due to differences in the propensity of seeking medical care (PSMC) between vaccinated and unvaccinated children. Results: The TNC-based VE estimate corrects for confounding bias when the confounder's effects on the probabilities of rotavirus and non-rotavirus related hospitalizations are equal. If this condition is not met, then the estimated VE may be substantially biased. The bias is more severe in low-income countries, where VE is known to be lower. Under our model, differences in PSMC between vaccinated and unvaccinated children do not result in selection bias when the TNC study design is used. Conclusions: In practice, one can expect the association of PSMC (or other potential confounders) with the probabilities of rotavirus and non-rotavirus related hospitalization to be similar, in which case the confounding effects will only result in small bias in the VE estimate from TNC studies. The results of this work, along with those of our previous paper, confirm the TNC design can be expected to provide reliable estimates of rotavirus VE in both high- and low-income countries.

Summary We propose a simple method for evaluating agreement between methods of measurement when the measured variable is continuous and the data consists of matched repeated observations made with the same method under different conditions. The conditions may represent different time points, raters, laboratories, treatments, etc. Our approach allows the values of the measured variable and the magnitude of disagreement to vary across the conditions. The coefficient of individual agreement (CIA), which is based on the comparison of the between and within-methods mean squared deviation (MSD) is used to quantify the magnitude of agreement between measurement methods. The new approach is illustrated via two examples from studies designed to compare (a) methods of evaluating carotid stenosis and (b) methods of measuring percent body fat.

Measures to decrease contact between persons during an influenza pandemic have been included in pandemic response plans. We used stochastic simulation models to explore the effects of school closings, voluntary confinements of ill persons and their household contacts, and reductions in contacts among long-term care facility (LTCF) residents on pandemic-related illness and deaths. Our findings suggest that school closings would not have a substantial effect on pandemic-related outcomes in the absence of measures to reduce out-of-school contacts. However, if persons with influenzalike symptoms and their household contacts were encouraged to stay home, then rates of illness and death might be reduced by ≈50%. By preventing ill LTCF residents from making contact with other residents, illness and deaths in this vulnerable population might be reduced by ≈60%. Restricting the activities of infected persons early in a pandemic could decrease negative health impact.

A seven-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV7) introduced in the United States in 2000 has been shown to reduce invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) in both vaccinated children and adults through induction of herd immunity. We assessed the impact of infant immunization on pneumococcal pneumonia hospitalizations and mortality in all age groups using Health Care Utilization Project State Inpatient Databases (SID) for 1996 to 2006 from 10 states; SID contain 100% samples of ICD9-coded hospitalization data for the selected states. Compared to a 1996–1997 through 1998–1999 baseline, by the 2005–2006 season, both IPD and pneumococcal pneumonia hospitalizations and deaths had decreased substantially in all age groups, including a 47% (95% confidence interval [CI], 38 to 54%) reduction in nonbacteremic pneumococcal pneumonia (ICD9 code 481 with no codes indicating IPD) in infants <2 years old and a 54% reduction (CI, 53 to 56%) in adults ≥65 years of age. A model developed to calculate the total burden of pneumococcal pneumonia prevented by infant PCV7 vaccination in the United States from 2000 to 2006 estimated a reduction of 788,838 (CI, 695,406 to 875,476) hospitalizations for pneumococcal pneumonia. Ninety percent of the reduction in model-attributed pneumococcal pneumonia hospitalizations occurred through herd immunity among adults 18 years old and older; similar proportions were found in pneumococcal disease mortality prevented by the vaccine. In the first seasons after PCV introduction, when there were substantial state differences in coverage among <5-year-olds, states with greater coverage had significantly fewer influenza-associated pneumonia hospitalizations among children, suggesting that PCV7 use also reduces influenza-attributable pneumonia hospitalizations.

Background: Using mathematical deterministic models of the epidemiology of hospital-acquired infections and antibiotic resistance, it has been shown that the rates of hospital-acquired bacterial infection and frequency of antibiotic infections can be reduced by (i) restricting the admission of patients colonized with resistant bacteria, (ii) increasing the rate of turnover of patients, (iii) reducing transmission by infection control measures, and (iv) the use of second-line drugs for which there is no resistance. In an effort to explore the generality and robustness of the predictions of these deterministic models to the real world of hospitals, where there is variation in all of the factors contributing to the incidence of infection, we developed and used a stochastic model of the epidemiology of hospital-acquired infections and resistance. In our analysis of the properties of this model we give particular consideration different regimes of using second-line drugs in this process. Methods: We developed a simple model that describes the transmission of drug-sensitive and drug-resistant bacteria in a small hospital. Colonized patients may be treated with a standard drug, for which there is some resistance, and with a second-line drug, for which there is no resistance. We then ran deterministic and stochastic simulation programs, based on this model, to predict the effectiveness of various treatment strategies. Results: The results of the analysis using our stochastic model support the predictions of the deterministic models; not only will the implementation of any of the above listed measures substantially reduce the incidences of hospital-acquired infections and the frequency of resistance, the effects of their implementation should be seen in months rather than the years or decades anticipated to control resistance in open communities. How effectively and how rapidly the application of second-line drugs will contribute to the decline in the frequency of resistance to the first-line drugs depends on how these drugs are administered. The earlier the switch to second-line drugs, the more effective this protocol will be. Switching to second-line drugs at random is more effective than switching after a defined period or only after there is direct evidence that the patient is colonized with bacteria resistant to the first antibiotic. Conclusions: The incidence of hospital-acquired bacterial infections and frequencies of antibiotic resistant bacteria can be markedly and rapidly reduced by different readily implemented procedures. The efficacy using second line drugs to achieve these ends depends on the protocol used for their administration.

BACKGROUND: As annual influenza vaccination is recommended for all U.S. persons aged 6 months or older, it is unethical to conduct randomized clinical trials to estimate influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE). Observational studies are being increasingly used to estimate VE. We developed a probability model for comparing the bias and the precision of VE estimates from two case-control designs: the traditional case-control (TCC) design and the test-negative (TN) design. In both study designs, acute respiratory illness (ARI) patients seeking medical care testing positive for influenza infection are considered cases. In the TN design, ARI patients seeking medical care who test negative serve as controls, while in the TCC design, controls are randomly selected individuals from the community who did not contract an ARI. METHODS: Our model assigns each study participant a covariate corresponding to the person's health status. The probabilities of vaccination and of contracting influenza and non-influenza ARI depend on health status. Hence, our model allows non-random vaccination and confounding. In addition, the probability of seeking care for ARI may depend on vaccination and health status. We consider two outcomes of interest: symptomatic influenza (SI) and medically-attended influenza (MAI). RESULTS: If vaccination does not affect the probability of non-influenza ARI, then VE estimates from TN studies usually have smaller bias than estimates from TCC studies. We also found that if vaccinated influenza ARI patients are less likely to seek medical care than unvaccinated patients because the vaccine reduces symptoms' severity, then estimates of VE from both types of studies may be severely biased when the outcome of interest is SI. The bias is not present when the outcome of interest is MAI. CONCLUSIONS: The TN design produces valid estimates of VE if (a) vaccination does not affect the probabilities of non-influenza ARI and of seeking care against influenza ARI, and (b) the confounding effects resulting from non-random vaccination are similar for influenza and non-influenza ARI. Since the bias of VE estimates depends on the outcome against which the vaccine is supposed to protect, it is important to specify the outcome of interest when evaluating the bias.

Purpose To identify predictors of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination among rural African American families. Design Cross-sectional descriptive study in schools in three rural counties in southeastern United States. The sample consisted of African American parents or caregivers with children 9 to 13 years of age who attended elementary or middle school in 2010–2011. Methods Using an anonymous, 26-item survey, we collected descriptive data during parent-teacher events from African American parents with children in elementary or middle school. The main outcome was measured as a response of “yes” to the statement “I have or will vaccinate my child with the HPV vaccine.” In addition, composite scores of knowledge and positive attitudes and beliefs were compared. No interventions were conducted. Findings We identified predictors of HPV vaccination and found that religious affiliation had a correlation with vaccinating or planning to vaccinate a child. Conclusions Results indicate a need for further research on the role of local culture, including religion and faith, in rural African Americans’ decisions about giving their children the HPV vaccination. Clinical Relevance This study emphasizes the importance of understanding rural African American parents’ knowledge, attitudes, and spiritual beliefs when designing health education programs and public health interventions to increase HPV vaccination uptake among African American boys and girls living in rural areas.