Recent increases in the scientific robustness of seasonal climate forecasts have not led to substantial changes in farmers’ risk management strategies of actors, largely because there is poor integration of scientific forecasting into farmers’ decision-making processes. The goal of the research presented here is to explore the potentials and constraints for farmers’ application of seasonal climate forecasts through an analysis of the cultural contexts of their decision-making and information use. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 38 farmers in southern Georgia, examining their approaches, risk-management, to livelihood goals and strategies, and interactions with weather and climate information. Findings indicate that farmers’ management of risks associated with climate variability is embedded within a broad array of social factors, including subjective construction of social and personal identities, goals, and values. These cultural contexts affect the ways that farmers interpret and might apply seasonal climate forecasts to agricultural decisions. These findings indicate that, rather than simply acting as a technical information input, seasonal climate forecasts and forecasters must gradually work their way into farmers’ trusted social networks before their potential as risk management tools will be realized. Furthermore, while seeking to produce scientific information to support farmers’ adaptive practices, scientists themselves must adapt their own practices to better fit a coproduction of knowledge approach.
Research documenting the impacts of seasonal climate variability on crop performance has generated considerable optimism about the potential of climate forecasts for improving farmers’ capacity to manage risk and optimize gains. Through an analysis of the social and cultural contexts of information management and decision making strategies, previous research conducted by the Southeast Climate Consortium (SECC) among conventional producers in the southeastern USA has explored the potentials and constraints for the application of seasonal climate forecasts in agriculture. This report complements this previous research by focusing on organic farmers in Georgia where the market potential for organic products, especially around urban centers, far exceeds the cropland designated for its production. The research approach combines quantitative and qualitative methods. Quantitative data were collected through an online survey completed by 40 respondents. Semi-structured interviews with 31 participants yielded qualitative data. Research questions focused on participants’ agricultural management systems, how they perceive climate change, and their knowledge, use, perceptions, and attitudes toward weather and climate predictions. Organic farmers, due to the small-scale diversified nature of their farms, differ from conventional producers in the southeastern USA in important ways that have implications for how they may access, understand, use, and assess climate information. Organic farmers tend to be relatively young and new to farming, and therefore, less able than conventional producers to rely on accumulated experience and knowledge from prior generations of farmers and family members. Our findings show that weather and climate factors are among the most important drivers that shape their agricultural decisions. Organic farmers use multiple strategies to manage climate risk. Production strategies for risk management include crop diversification, staggered planting, hoop or green houses, and irrigation technologies. This study recommends how research and extension programs may better reach and serve this clientele, for example, through providing tools that predict and monitor weather and climate extremes, such as freezes, droughts, and hurricanes, as well as tools with information on climate related threats such as pests and diseases. It is imperative that climate information is presented and packaged into decision support systems in a way that reflects an understanding of the social practices of information processing and risk management that are embraced by organic farmers.
This study is part of a project on "Adaptation to Climate Change of Smallholder Agriculture in Kenya" was launched by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), the Kenya Agricultural Research Institute (KARI), the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI) and the University of Georgia (UGA) funded by the World Bank. This project aims to support policymakers’ efforts to promote adaptation to climate change by determining where major hotspots of vulnerability are located, identifying farm- and community-level adaptation strategies, assessing the factors which influence adoption of adaptation practices at the farm level—particularly sustainable land management practices—as well as farmers’ perceptions of climate risks, and identifying adaptation options that provide the most benefits in terms of their impact and synergies with agricultural productivity and mitigation objectives.
During the last 10 yr, research on seasonal climate forecasts as an agricultural risk management tool has pursued three directions: modeling potential impacts and responses, identifying opportunities and constraints, and analyzing risk communication aspects. Most of these approaches tend to frame seasonal climate forecasts as a discrete product with direct and linear effects. In contrast, the authors propose that agricultural management is a performative process, constituted by a combination of planning, experimentation, and improvisation and drawing on a mix of technical expertise, situated knowledge, cumulative experience, and intuitive skill as farmers navigate a myriad of risks in the pursuit of livelihood goals and economic opportunities. This study draws on ethnographic interviews conducted with 38 family farmers in southern Georgia, examining their livelihood goals and social values, strategies for managing risk, and interactions with weather and climate information, specifically their responses to seasonal climate forecasts. Findings highlight the social nature of information processing and risk management, indicating that both material conditions and value-based attitudes bear upon the ways farmers may integrate climate predictions into their agricultural management practices. These insights translate into specific recommendations that will enhance the salience, credibility, and legitimacy of seasonal climate forecasts among farmers and will promote the incorporation of such information into a skillful performance in the face of climate uncertainty.
Livelihoods of Kenyan farmers are closely linked to climate conditions. Fifty-two percent of the population is below the poverty line, mostly in rural areas. While the poorest of the poor live in the northern, arid zones of the country, more than 80 percent of the rural poor are located in the highpotential areas of Lake Victoria and Mount Kenya. Almost three quarters of the Kenyan labor force still depends on agriculture for their livelihoods, and almost all farmers depend on timely and adequate rainfall for crop production and husbandry, as only 2 percent of cultivated area is equipped for irrigation. Thus, climate variability and change have and will increasingly impact agricultural livelihoods and food security in the country, making adaptation essential for rural areas in Kenya.
This report uses data gathered through a farm household survey during July 2009 to February 2010 for 710 households from 7 districts and 13 divisions of Kenya spanning the arid, semi-arid, temperate and humid agroecological zones (AEZ) of the country as well as data collected through participatory rural appraisals conducted in each AEZ. One community module was also implemented in each of the districts. These data were used to assess farmers’ exposure to climate-related shocks and coping strategies, perceptions of climate change and climate change impacts, adaptation strategies, constraints to adaptation, and the determinants of adaptation.
Even in areas that have not experienced such extreme climate change impacts as in the Arctic, local residents are beginning to notice shifts from what is their established knowledge of local climatology and normal variation within it. Rakai district in southern Uganda is located near the Equator but, due to interannual variability in the timing and amount of precipitation and the vulnerability of crops to moisture deficits, the area frequently experiences climate-related food insecurity. Rural households derive most of their food and income from rainfed agriculture, including a mix of perennial (banana, coffee) and annual crops (maize, beans, peanut). Because of the centrality of rainfall for their livelihood, at the onset of the rainy season farmers scrutinize the skies. They formulate predictions, and discuss the weather, comparing it to the recent and distant past. In particular, they note that rains are less regular and less abundant than in the past and the seasons less clearly demarcated.
Farmers in southern Uganda seek information to anticipate the interannual variability in the timing and amount of precipitation, a matter of great importance to them since they rely on rain-fed agriculture for food supplies and income. The four major components of their knowledge system are: (1) longstanding familiarity with the seasonal patterns of precipitation and temperature, (2) a set of local traditional climate indicators, (3) observation of meteorological events, (4) information about the progress of the seasons elsewhere in the region. We examine these components and show the connections among them. We discuss the social contexts in which this information is perceived, evaluated, discussed and applied, and we consider the cultural frameworks that support the use of this information. This system of indigenous knowledge leads farmers to participate as agents as well as consumers in programs that use modern climate science to plan for and adapt to climate variability and climate change.
Most climate change studies that address potential impacts and potential adaptation strategies are largely based on modelling technologies. While models are useful for visualizing potential future outcomes and evaluating options for potential adaptation, they do not adequately represent and integrate adaptive human agency. Richards’ concept of ‘agriculture as performance’ is useful in counterbalancing the modelling approach to adaptation because it highlights how adaptive processes and technologies, whether short term or long term, are more than simple technical responses to biophysical conditions. Instead, adaptive processes are social phenomena whose significance and effects expand well beyond changing climate conditions. This examination of agriculture as performance in the context of climate adaptation draws on two different examples. The first example explores how technical aspects of climate adaptation in Mali are situated within the enactment of ethnic identities and political struggles between farmers and herders. The second example shows how farmers in southeastern United States approach climate variability and climate forecasts as risk management tools. There are substantial differences between approaching adaptation as a dynamic process that is socially embedded and approaching adaptation as a set of modelled responses to anticipated future conditions. It is unlikely that either is adequate to meet the challenges posed by the uncertainties associated with climate change. However, building a synergistic relationship between the two promises to be as difficult as it is necessary.
Karim could be confused with one of millions of African smallholder farmers who tend small plots of land for their subsistence. He grows three hectares of maize and one hectare of vegetables in a small village in southwestern Burkina Faso. He and his family plow their field with a pair of oxen, and weed it with hand-held hoes. When asked where the water comes from for his crops, Karim answers, “God.”
But there is a lot more to Karim’s story than this succinct anecdote can convey. Karim cultivates the three hectares of maize and one hectare of vegetables during the dry season, in addition to the crops he grows during the wet season. These dry season crops are not primarily destined for the household, but are sold in local markets, and some are even exported to Ivory Coast. He uses a diesel powered pump and a series of PVC pipes to direct water from a nearby river to irrigate his fields. He grows two improved varieties of maize and applies herbicides before planting. He purchases improved vegetable seeds from a private distributor who gets them shipped directly from Europe. Pest pressure is high, so he applies multiple applications of different, crop-specific pesticides to his vegetable and maize crops. He also makes multiple applications of mineral fertilizers. Much of these investments are done with very little support from government or non-governmental organizations.
Climate forecasts have shown potential for improving resilience of African agriculture to climate shocks, but uncertainty remains about how farmers would use such information in crop management decisions and whether doing so would benefit them. This article presents results from participatory research with farmers from two agro-ecological zones of Senegal, West Africa. Based on simulation exercises, the introduction of seasonal and dekadal forecasts induced changes in farmers’ practices in almost 75% of the cases. Responses were categorized as either implying pure intensification of cropping systems (21% of cases), non-intensified strategies (31%) or a mix of both (24%). Among non-intensified strategies, the most common forecast uses are changes in sowing date and crop variety with the latter being more prevalent where a wider repertoire of varieties existed. Mixed strategies generally used more inputs like manure or chemical fertilizers coupled with another strategy such as changing sowing date. Yield estimates suggest that forecast use led to yield gains in about one-third of the cases, with relatively few losses. Impacts varied according to the nature of the actual rainy season, forecasts accuracy and the type of response, positive ones being higher in wetter years, with intensified strategies and with accurate predictions. These results validate prior evidence that climate forecasts may be able to help Senegalese farmers adapt to climate variability, especially helping them capitalize on anticipated favorable conditions. Realization of potential advantages appears associated with a context where there is greater varietal choice and options for intensification.