Background Two distinctly different types of measurement error are Berkson and classical. Impacts of measurement error in epidemiologic studies of ambient air pollution are expected to depend on error type. We characterize measurement error due to instrument imprecision and spatial variability as multiplicative (i.e. additive on the log scale) and model it over a range of error types to assess impacts on risk ratio estimates both on a per measurement unit basis and on a per interquartile range (IQR) basis in a time-series study in Atlanta. Methods Daily measures of twelve ambient air pollutants were analyzed: NO2, NOx, O3, SO2, CO, PM10 mass, PM2.5 mass, and PM2.5 components sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, elemental carbon and organic carbon. Semivariogram analysis was applied to assess spatial variability. Error due to this spatial variability was added to a reference pollutant time-series on the log scale using Monte Carlo simulations. Each of these time-series was exponentiated and introduced to a Poisson generalized linear model of cardiovascular disease emergency department visits. Results Measurement error resulted in reduced statistical significance for the risk ratio estimates for all amounts (corresponding to different pollutants) and types of error. When modelled as classical-type error, risk ratios were attenuated, particularly for primary air pollutants, with average attenuation in risk ratios on a per unit of measurement basis ranging from 18% to 92% and on an IQR basis ranging from 18% to 86%. When modelled as Berkson-type error, risk ratios per unit of measurement were biased away from the null hypothesis by 2% to 31%, whereas risk ratios per IQR were attenuated (i.e. biased toward the null) by 5% to 34%. For CO modelled error amount, a range of error types were simulated and effects on risk ratio bias and significance were observed. Conclusions For multiplicative error, both the amount and type of measurement error impact health effect estimates in air pollution epidemiology. By modelling instrument imprecision and spatial variability as different error types, we estimate direction and magnitude of the effects of error over a range of error types.

Background Development of exposure metrics that capture features of the multipollutant environment are needed to investigate health effects of pollutant mixtures. This is a complex problem that requires development of new methodologies. Objective Present a self-organizing map (SOM) framework for creating ambient air quality classifications that group days with similar multipollutant profiles. Methods Eight years of day-level data from Atlanta, GA, for ten ambient air pollutants collected at a central monitor location were classified using SOM into a set of day types based on their day-level multipollutant profiles. We present strategies for using SOM to develop a multipollutant metric of air quality and compare results with more traditional techniques. Results Our analysis found that 16 types of days reasonably describe the day-level multipollutant combinations that appear most frequently in our data. Multipollutant day types ranged from conditions when all pollutants measured low to days exhibiting relatively high concentrations for either primary or secondary pollutants or both. The temporal nature of class assignments indicated substantial heterogeneity in day type frequency distributions (~1%-14%), relatively short-term durations (<2 day persistence), and long-term and seasonal trends. Meteorological summaries revealed strong day type weather dependencies and pollutant concentration summaries provided interesting scenarios for further investigation. Comparison with traditional methods found SOM produced similar classifications with added insight regarding between-class relationships. Conclusion We find SOM to be an attractive framework for developing ambient air quality classification because the approach eases interpretation of results by allowing users to visualize classifications on an organized map. The presented approach provides an appealing tool for developing multipollutant metrics of air quality that can be used to support multipollutant health studies.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention defined epilepsy as an emerging public health issue in a recent report and emphasized the importance of epilepsy studies in minorities and people of low socioeconomic status. Previous research has suggested that the incidence rate for epilepsy is positively associated with various measures of social and economic disadvantage. In response, we utilize hierarchical Bayesian models to analyze health disparities in epilepsy and seizure risks among multiple ethnicities in the city of Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The goals of the analysis are to highlight any overall significant disparities in epilepsy risks between the populations of Caucasians, African Americans, and Hispanics in the study area during the years 2002-2004 and to visualize the spatial pattern of epilepsy risks by ethnicity to indicate where certain ethnic populations were most adversely affected by epilepsy within the study area. Results of the Bayesian model indicate that Hispanics have the highest epilepsy risk overall, followed by African Americans, and then Caucasians. There are significant increases in relative risk for both African Americans and Hispanics when compared with Caucasians, as indicated by the posterior mean estimates of 2.09 with a 95 per cent credible interval of (1.67, 2.62) for African Americans and 2.97 with a 95 per cent credible interval of (2.37, 3.71) for Hispanics. Results also demonstrate that using a Bayesian analysis in combination with geographic information system (GIS) technology can reveal spatial patterns in patient data and highlight areas of disparity in epilepsy risk among subgroups of the population.

BACKGROUND: In the United States, excess burden of stroke mortality has persisted among African Americans compared with whites despite declines in stroke mortality for both groups. New insights may be gleaned by examining local, small-area patterns in racial disparities in stroke. METHODS: The study population includes all non-Hispanic African Americans and non-Hispanic whites aged 35 to 64 in the southeastern United States during 1999 to 2002. We assessed county-level numbers of stroke deaths and population estimates in a Bayesian spatial hierarchical modeling framework allowing for inclusion of potential covariates (poverty and rurality), and generating county-specific model-based estimates of both absolute and relative racial disparity. The resulting estimates of race-specific stroke death rates, relative racial disparity, and absolute racial disparity were expressed in maps. RESULTS: After adjustment for age, poverty, and rurality, county-level estimates of relative racial disparity ranged from 2.3 to 3.3 and estimates of absolute racial disparity ranged from 19 to 45 excess deaths per 100,000. For both racial groups, stroke death rates were higher in rural areas and with increasing poverty. High relative racial disparity was concentrated primarily in the eastern portion of the region and large absolute racial disparity was concentrated primarily in the western portion. CONCLUSIONS: The results highlight the pervasiveness and magnitude of substantial local racial disparities in stroke mortality in the southeast.

Aedes polynesiensis and Ae. aegypti breeding site productivity in two American Samoa villages were analyzed during a dry season survey and compared with a wet season survey. Both surveys identified similar container types producing greater numbers of pupae, with buckets, drums, and tires responsible for > 50% of Aedes pupae during the dry season. The prevalence of containers with Ae. polynesiensis and the density of Ae. polynesiensis in discarded appli-ances, drums, and discarded plastic ice cream containers were significantly greater during the dry season. Aedes aegypti pupal densities were significantly greater in the dry season in ice cream containers and tires. Significant clustering of the most productive container types by household was only found for appliances.The high productivity for Ae. polynesiensis and Ae. aegypti pupae during the wet and dry seasons suggests that dengue and lymphatic filariasis transmission can occur throughout the year, consistent with the reporting of dengue cases.

Geographic epidemiology is concerned with the investigation of spatially referenced data to discover spatial patterns in the health status of populations. In this context it is generally assumed that a perfect diagnostic test is used to classify individuals as being positive or negative, meaning the health status is measured without error. In this work the effect of an imperfect diagnostic test on spatial patterns of disease in regional count data is investigated in a case study. Specifically the misclassification effect on the semivariogram, Moran's I statistic and the spatial scan test are evaluated for the situation of West Nile virus infections among dead birds sampled from the 30 public health units of southern Ontario in 2005. We illustrate that under large sample conditions no serious spatial bias is introduced by use of an imperfect diagnostic test as long as the imperfection itself is spatially unbiased.

Neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) are communicable diseases that occur under conditions of poverty and are concentrated almost exclusively in impoverished populations in the developing world. NTDs affect more than 1000 million people in tropical and subtropical countries, costing developing economies billions of dollars every year. Effective control of NTDs can be achieved with the use of large-scale delivery of single-dose preventive chemotherapy (PC) or intensified disease management (IDM) or both, as is the case for some diseases such as lymphatic filariasis, trachoma, and yaws. Several NTDs exhibit significant cutaneous manifestations that are associated with long-term disfigurement and disability, including Buruli ulcer (BU); cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL); leprosy; mycetoma; yaws; hydrocele and lymphoedema (resulting from lymphatic filariasis); and depigmentation, subcutaneous nodules, severe itching, and hanging groin (resulting from onchocerciasis). Skin examination offers an opportunity to screen people in the communities or children in schools to identify multiple conditions in a single visit. This common approach to skin diseases justifies the integrated delivery of health care interventions to both increase cost-effectiveness and expand coverage. WHO’s Department of Control of NTDs (WHO/NTD) plans to promote an integrated strategy for the skin NTDs requiring IDM. Targeting skin NTDs also provides a platform for treatment of common skin conditions and, therefore, has wider public health benefits. An informal panel of experts (writing this manuscript) was established to help develop guidance in support of the new WHO strategic direction and to develop a proposal for a change in policy for the integrated control and management of the skin NTDs. A symposium at the 2015 ASTMH meeting[1] initiated a discussion of opportunities around integration of surveillance and control of NTDs that affect the skin, but this paper moves these ideas forward and includes some initial recommendations about how these opportunities could be realised. We aim to provide specific pragmatic information and actual recommendations about potential surveillance and management approaches.

Background: A difficult issue in observational studies is assessment of whether important confounders are omitted or misspecified. In this study, we present a method for assessing whether residual confounding is present. Our method depends on availability of an indicator with 2 key characteristics: first, it is conditionally independent (given measured exposures and covariates) of the outcome in the absence of confounding, misspecification, and measurement errors; second, it is associated with the exposure and, like the exposure, with any unmeasured confounders. Methods: We demonstrate the method using a time-series study of the effects of ozone on emergency department visits for asthma in Atlanta. We argue that future air pollution may have the characteristics appropriate for an indicator, in part because future ozone cannot have caused yesterday's health events. Using directed acyclic graphs and specific causal relationships, we show that one can identify residual confounding using an indicator with the stated characteristics. We use simulations to assess the discriminatory ability of future ozone as an indicator of residual confounding in the association of ozone with asthma-related emergency department visits. Parameter choices are informed by observed data for ozone, meteorologic factors, and asthma. Results: In simulations, we found that ozone concentrations 1 day after the emergency department visits had excellent discriminatory ability to detect residual confounding by some factors that were intentionally omitted from the model, but weaker ability for others. Although not the primary goal, the indicator can also signal other forms of modeling errors, including substantial measurement error, and does not distinguish between them. Conclusions: The simulations illustrate that the indicator based on future air pollution levels can have excellent discriminatory ability for residual confounding, although performance varied by situation. Application of the method should be evaluated by considering causal relationships for the intended application, and should be accompanied by other approaches, including evaluation of a priori knowledge.

© 2017, Public Health Services, US Dept of Health and Human Services. All rights reserved.Background: Short-term exposure to ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations has been associated with increased mortality and morbidity. Determining which sources of PM2.5 are most toxic can help guide targeted reduction of PM2.5. However, conducting multicity epidemio-logic studies of sources is difficult because source-specific PM2.5 is not directly measured, and source chemical compositions can vary between cities. oBjectives: We determined how the chemical composition of primary ambient PM2.5 sources varies across cities. We estimated associations between source-specific PM2.5 and respiratory disease emergency department (ED) visits and examined between-city heterogeneity in estimated associations. Methods: We used source apportionment to estimate daily concentrations of primary source-specific PM2.5 for four U.S. cities. For sources with similar chemical compositions between cities, we applied Poisson time-series regression models to estimate associations between source-specific PM2.5 and respiratory disease ED visits. results: We found that PM2.5 from biomass burning, diesel vehicle, gasoline vehicle, and dust sources was similar in chemical composition between cities, but PM2.5 from coal combustion and metal sources varied across cities. We found some evidence of positive associations of respiratory disease ED visits with biomass burning PM2.5; associations with diesel and gasoline PM2.5 were frequently imprecise or consistent with the null. We found little evidence of associations with dust PM2.5. conclusions: We introduced an approach for comparing the chemical compositions of PM2.5 sources across cities and conducted one of the first multicity studies of source-specific PM2.5 and ED visits. Across four U.S. cities, among the primary PM2.5 sources assessed, biomass burning PM2.5 was most strongly associated with respiratory health.

The study of ecological boundaries and their dynamics is of fundamental importance to much of ecology, biogeography, and evolution. Over the past two decades, boundary analysis (of which wombling is a subfield) has received considerable research attention, resulting in multiple approaches for the quantification of ecological boundaries. Nonetheless, few methods have been developed that can simultaneously (1) analyze spatially homogenized data sets (i.e., areal data in the form of polygons rather than point-reference data); (2) account for spatial structure in these data and uncertainty associated with them; and (3) objectively assign probabilities to boundaries once detected. Here we describe the application of a Bayesian hierarchical framework for boundary detection developed in public health, which addresses these issues but which has seen limited application in ecology. As examples, we analyze simulated spread data and the historic pattern of spread of an invasive species, the hemlock woolly adelgid (Adelges tsugae), using county-level summaries of the year of first reported infestation and several covariates potentially important to influencing the observed spread dynamics. Bayesian areal wombling is a promising approach for analyzing ecological boundaries and dynamics related to changes in the distributions of native and invasive species.