Lives saved with vaccination for 10 pathogens across 112 countries in a pre-COVID-19 world

• Type of Material: Article
• Authors: Jaspreet Toor, MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis; Susy Echeverria-Londono, MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis; Xiang Li, MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis; Kaja Abbas, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine; Emily D Carter, Johns Hopkins University; Hannah E Clapham, Natl Univ Singapore; Andrew Clark, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine; Margaret J de Villiers, MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis; Kirsten Eilertson, Colorado State University; Matthew Ferrari, Pennsylvania State University; Ivane Gamkrelidze, Center for Disease Analysis Foundation, Lafayette; Timothy B Hallett, MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis; Wes R Hinsley, MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis; Daniel Hogan, Vaccine Alliance; John H Huber, University of Notre Dame; Michael L Jackson, Kaiser Permanente Washington; Kevin Jean, MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis; Mark Jit, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine; Andromachi Karachaliou, University of Cambridge; Petra Klepac, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine; Alicia Kraay, Emory University; Justin Lessler, Johns Hopkins University; Xi Li, Independent, Atlanta; Benjamin Lopman, Emory University; Tewodaj Mengistu, Vaccine Alliance; Jessica CE Metcalf, Princeton University; Sean M Moore, University of Notre Dame; Shevanthi Nayagam, MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis; Timos Papadopoulos, Public Health England; Alex T Perkins, University of Notre Dame; Allison Portnoy, Harvard University; Homie Razavi, Center for Disease Analysis Foundation, Lafayette; Devin Razavi-Shearer, Center for Disease Analysis Foundation, Lafayette; Stephen Resch, Harvard University; Colin Sanderson, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine; Steven Sweet, Harvard University; Yvonne Tam, Johns Hopkins University; Hira Tanvir, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine; Quan Tran Minh, University of Notre Dame; Caroline L Trotter, University of Cambridge; Shuan A Truelove, Johns Hopkins University; Emilia Vynnycky, Public Health England; Neff Walker, Johns Hopkins University; Amy Winter, Johns Hopkins University; Kim Woodruff, MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis; Neil M Ferguson, MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis; Katy AM Gaythorpe, MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis
• Language: English
• Date: 2021-07-13
• Publisher: eLIFE SCIENCES PUBL LTD
• Publication Version: Final Published Version
• Copyright Statement: © 2021, Toor et al
• License: Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International
• Final Published Version (URL): http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.67635
• Title of Journal or Parent Work: ELIFE
• Volume: 10
• Grant/Funding Information: National Institutes of Health R01 GM124280 to Benjamin A Lopman.; National Institutes of Health R01 AI112970 to Benjamin A Lopman.; This paper was supported by the following grants:; Medical Research Council MR/R015600/1 to Jaspreet Toor, Susy Echeverria-Londono, Xiang Li, Wes R Hinsley, Kim Woodruff, Neil M Ferguson, Katy AM Gaythorpe.; Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation OPP1157270 / INV-009125 to Jaspreet Toor, Susy Echeverria-Londono, Xiang Li, Kaja Abbas, Emily D Carter, Hannah E Clapham, Andrew Clark, Margaret J de Villiers, Kirsten Eilertson, Matthew Ferrari, Ivane Gamkrelidze, Timothy B Hallett, Wes R Hinsley, Daniel Hogan, John H Huber, Michael L Jackson, Kevin Jean, Mark Jit, Andromachi Karachaliou, Petra Klepac, Alicia Kraay, Justin Lessler, Xi Li, Benjamin A Lopman, Tewodaj Mengistu, C Jessica E Metcalf, Sean M Moore, Shevanthi Nayagam, Timos Papadopoulos, T Alex Perkins, Allison Portnoy, Homie Razavi, Devin Razavi-Shearer, Stephen Resch, Colin Sanderson, Steven Sweet, Yvonne Tam, Hira Tanvir, Quan Tran Minh, Caroline L Trotter, Shaun A Truelove, Emilia Vynnycky, Neff Walker, Amy Winter, Kim Woodruff, Neil M Ferguson.; This publication is authored by members of the Vaccine Impact Modelling Consortium (VIMC, www.vaccineimpact.org). VIMC is jointly funded by Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, and by the Bill Melinda Gates Foundation. The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the Consortium or its funders. The funders were given the opportunity to review this paper prior to publication, but the final decision on the content of the publication was taken by the authors. Consortium members received funding from Gavi and BMGF via VIMC during the course of the study.
• Keywords: YELLOW-FEVER; Biology; Science & Technology; VIRUS-INFECTION; CHILDREN YOUNGER; MATERNAL RUBELLA; STREPTOCOCCUS-PNEUMONIAE; HEPATITIS-B; MENINGOCOCCAL MENINGITIS; Life Sciences & Biomedicine; BACTERIAL-MENINGITIS; Life Sciences & Biomedicine - Other Topics; INFLUENZAE TYPE-B; HUMAN-PAPILLOMAVIRUS VACCINATION
• Research Categories: Health Sciences, Public Health

Abstract

Background: Vaccination is one of the most effective public health interventions. We investigate the impact of vaccination activities for Haemophilus influenzae type b, hepatitis B, human papillomavirus, Japanese encephalitis, measles, Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A, rotavirus, rubella, Streptococcus pneumoniae, and yellow fever over the years 2000–2030 across 112 countries. Methods: Twenty-one mathematical models estimated disease burden using standardised demographic and immunisation data. Impact was attributed to the year of vaccination through vaccine-activity-stratified impact ratios. Results: We estimate 97 (95%CrI[80, 120]) million deaths would be averted due to vaccination activities over 2000–2030, with 50 (95%CrI[41, 62]) million deaths averted by activities between 2000 and 2019. For children under-5 born between 2000 and 2030, we estimate 52 (95%CrI[41, 69]) million more deaths would occur over their lifetimes without vaccination against these diseases. Conclusions: This study represents the largest assessment of vaccine impact before COVID-19-related disruptions and provides motivation for sustaining and improving global vaccination coverage in the future.