Emerging human infectious diseases and the links to global food production

• Type of Material: Article
• Authors: Jason R. Rohr, University of Notre Dame; Christopher B. Barrett, Cornell University; David Civitello, Emory University; Meggan E. Craft, University of Minnesota; Bryan Delius, University of South Florida; Guilio A. DeLeo, Stanford University; Peter J. Hudson, Pennsylvania State University; Nicolas Jouanard, Espoir pour la Sante; Karena H. Nguyen, University of South Florida; Richard S. Ostfeld, Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies; Justin Remais, Emory University; Gilles Riveau, Espoir pour la Sante; Susanne H. Sokolow, Stanford University; David Tilman, University of Minnesota
• Language: English
• Date: 2019-06-01
• Publisher: Nature
• Publication Version: Final Published Version
• Copyright Statement: © Springer Nature Limited 2019.
• License: Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International
• Final Published Version (URL): http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41893-019-0293-3
• Title of Journal or Parent Work: Nature Sustainability
• Volume: 2
• Issue: 6
• Start Page: 445
• End Page: 456
• Grant/Funding Information: G.A.D. and S.H.S. were supported by National Science Foundation (CNH grant no. 1414102), NIH grants (R01TW010286-01) the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, Stanford GDP SEED (grant no. 1183573-100-GDPAO) and the SNAP-NCEAS-supported working group ‘Ecological levers for health: advancing a priority agenda for Disease Ecology and Planetary Health in the 21st century’.; M.E.C. was funded by National Science Foundation (DEB-1413925 and 1654609) and UMN’s CVM Research Office Ag Experiment Station General Ag Research Funds. We thank K. Marx for contributing the artwork in Fig. ​Fig.11.; J.V.R. was supported by the National Science Foundation Water, Sustainability, and Climate program (awards 1360330 and 1646708), the National Institutes of Health (R01AI125842 and R01TW010286), and the University of California Multicampus Research Programs and Initiatives (award # 17-446315).; Funds were provided by grants to J.R.R. from the National Science Foundation (EF-1241889, DEB-1518681, IOS-1754868), the National Institutes of Health (R01GM109499, R01TW010286-01), the US Department of Agriculture (2009-35102-0543) and the US Environmental Protection Agency (CAREER 83518801).
• Keywords: Tremadote infections; Agricultural intensification; Developing countries; Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Resistance; Avian influenza; Risk factors; Life Sciences & Biomedicine; Environmental Sciences; Antimicrobial resistance; Science & Technology - Other Topics; Green revolution; Environmental Studies; Human health; Land-use change; Green & Sustainable Science & Technology; Science & Technology
• Research Categories: Health Sciences, Nutrition; Health Sciences, Epidemiology; Health Sciences, Occupational Health and Safety; Agriculture, Food Science and Technology

Abstract

Infectious diseases are emerging globally at an unprecedented rate while global food demand is projected to increase sharply by 2100. Here, we synthesize the pathways by which projected agricultural expansion and intensification will influence human infectious diseases and how human infectious diseases might likewise affect food production and distribution. Feeding 11 billion people will require substantial increases in crop and animal production that will expand agricultural use of antibiotics, water, pesticides and fertilizer, and contact rates between humans and both wild and domestic animals, all with consequences for the emergence and spread of infectious agents. Indeed, our synthesis of the literature suggests that, since 1940, agricultural drivers were associated with >25% of all — and >50% of zoonotic — infectious diseases that emerged in humans, proportions that will likely increase as agriculture expands and intensifies. We identify agricultural and disease management and policy actions, and additional research, needed to address the public health challenge posed by feeding 11 billion people.