Spatial variability in the reproduction number of Ebola virus disease, Democratic Republic of the Congo, January–September 2019

• Type of Material: Article
• Authors: Kenji Mizumoto, Kyoto University Yoshida-Nakaadachi-cho; Amna Tariq, Georgia State University; Kimberlyn Roosa, Georgia State University; Jun Kong, Emory University; Ping Yan, Public Health Agency of Canada; Gerardo Chowell, Georgia State University
• Language: English
• Date: 2019-10-17
• Publisher: European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control
• Publication Version: Final Published Version
• Copyright Statement: This article is copyright of the authors or their affiliated institutions, 2019.
• License: Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International
• Final Published Version (URL): http://dx.doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2019.24.42.1900588
• Title of Journal or Parent Work: Eurosurveillance
• Volume: 24
• Issue: 42
• Grant/Funding Information: KM acknowledges support from the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS) KAKENHI Grant Number 18K17368 and from the Leading Initiative for Excellent Young Researchers from the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sport, Science & Technology of Japan.; AT and KR support from a Georgia State University’s Second Century Initiative (2CI) doctoral fellowship.; GC acknowledges support from NSF grant 1414374 as part of the joint NSF-NIH-USDA Ecology and Evolution of Infectious Diseases program.; JK partly support from National Institute of Health K25CA181503, and U01CA242936.
• Keywords: reproduction number; threshold; outbreak; ebola; conflict; epidemic; Congo; next generation matrix
• Research Categories: Biology, Virology; Health Sciences, Public Health

Abstract

The ongoing Ebola virus disease epidemic (August 2018─October 2019) in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, has been exacerbated by deliberate attacks on healthcare workers despite vaccination efforts. Using a mathematical/statistical modelling framework, we present the quantified effective reproduction number (R t) at national and regional levels as at 29 September. The weekly trend in R t displays fluctuations while our recent national-level R t falls slightly above 1.0 with substantial uncertainty, which suggests improvements in epidemic control.