Have Paved Trails and Protected Bike Lanes Led to More Bicycling in Atlanta? A Generalized Synthetic-Control Analysis

• Type of Material: Article
• Authors: Michael D Garber, Emory University; William Flanders, Emory University; Kari E Watkins, School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; Felipe Lobelo, Emory University; Michael Kramer, Emory University; Lauren McCullough, Emory University
• Language: English
• Date: 2022-07-01
• Publisher: LIPPINCOTT WILLIAMS & WILKINS
• Publication Version: Author Accepted Manuscript (After Peer Review)
• Copyright Statement: © 2022 Wolters Kluwer Health
• Final Published Version (URL): http://dx.doi.org/10.1097/EDE.0000000000001483
• Title of Journal or Parent Work: EPIDEMIOLOGY
• Volume: 33
• Issue: 4
• Start Page: 493
• End Page: 504
• Grant/Funding Information: This work was supported by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (F31HL143900) and by the Doctoral Student Research Grant from the American College of Sports Medicine Foundation (18-00663). The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of the National Institutes of Health or the American College of Sports Medicine Foundation.
• Keywords: PATTERNS; INFRASTRUCTURE; Atlanta BeltLine; Built environment; Synthetic control; RIDERSHIP; Big data; BUILT ENVIRONMENT; PHYSICAL-ACTIVITY; Public, Environmental & Occupational Health; NEW-ORLEANS; Causal inference; URBAN; Life Sciences & Biomedicine; Bicycle infrastructure; Science & Technology; CAUSAL INFERENCE
• Research Categories: Engineering, Environmental; Health Sciences, Public Health; Health Sciences, Epidemiology

Abstract

Background: Bicycling is an important form of physical activity in populations. Research assessing the effect of infrastructure on bicycling with high-resolution smartphone data is emerging in several places, but it remains limited in low-bicycling US settings, including the Southeastern US. The Atlanta area has been expanding its bicycle infrastructure, including off-street paved trails such as the Atlanta BeltLine and some protected bike lanes. Methods: Using the generalized synthetic-control method, we estimated effects of five groups of off-street paved trails and protected bike lanes on bicycle ridership in their corresponding areas. To measure bicycling, we used 2 years (October 1, 2016 to September 30, 2018) of monthly Strava data in Atlanta's urban core along with data from 15 on-the-ground counters to adjust for spatiotemporal variation in app use. Results: Considering all infrastructure as one joint intervention, an estimated 1.10 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.99, 1.18) times more bicycle-distance was ridden than would have been expected in the same areas had the infrastructure not been built, when defining treatment areas by the narrower of two definitions (defined in text). The Atlanta BeltLine Westside Trail and Proctor Creek Greenway had especially strong effect estimates, e.g., ratios of 1.45 (95% CI: 1.12, 1.86) and 1.55 (1.10, 2.14) under each treatment-area definition, respectively. We estimated that other infrastructure had weaker positive or no effects on bicycle-distance ridden. Conclusions: This study advances research on the topic because of its setting in the US Southeast, simultaneous assessment of several infrastructure groups, and data-driven approach to estimating effects. See video abstract at, http://links.lww.com/EDE/B936.