Modeling suggests that multiple immunizations or infections will reveal the benefits of updating SARS-CoV-2 vaccines

• Type of Material: Article
• Authors: Rajat Desikan, GlaxoSmithKline (GSK), Gunnels Wood Rd; Susanne L Linderman, Emory University; Carl Davis, Emory University; Veronika Zarnitsyna, Emory University; Hasan Ahmed, Emory University; Rustom Antia, Emory University
• Language: English
• Date: 2022-05-23
• Publisher: NIH
• Publication Version: Preprint (Prior to Peer Review)
• Copyright Statement: The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.
• License: Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 4.0 International
• Final Published Version (URL): http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/2022.05.21.492928
• Title of Journal or Parent Work: bioRxiv
• Volume: 2022
• Keywords: Variants; Simulations; COVID-19; Modeling; Omicron; SARS-CoV-2; Vaccine

Abstract

When should vaccines to evolving pathogens such as SARS-CoV-2 be updated? Our computational models address this focusing on updating SARS-CoV-2 vaccines to the currently circulating Omicron variant. Current studies typically compare the antibody titers to the new variant following a single dose of the original-vaccine versus the updated-vaccine in previously immunized individuals. These studies find that the updated-vaccine does not induce higher titers to the vaccine-variant compared with the original-vaccine, suggesting that updating may not be needed. Our models recapitulate this observation but suggest that vaccination with the updated-vaccine generates qualitatively different humoral immunity, a small fraction of which is specific for unique epitopes to the new variant. Our simulations suggest that these new variant-specific responses could dominate following subsequent vaccination or infection with either the currently circulating or future variants. We suggest a two-dose strategy for determining if the vaccine needs updating and for vaccinating high-risk individuals.