Spatio-temporal coherence of dengue, chikungunya and Zika outbreaks in Merida, Mexico

• Type of Material: Article
• Authors: Donal Bisanzio, RTI International; Felipe Dzul-Manzanilla, Centro Nacional de Programas Preventivos y Control de Enfermedades (CENAPRECE) Secretaría de Salud Mexico; Hector Gomez-Dantés, Instituto Nacional de Salud Publica; Norm Pavia-Ruz, Universidad Autonoma de Yucatan; Thomas J. Hladish, University of Florida; Audrey Lenhart, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; Jorge Palacio-Vargas, Secretaria de Salud de Yucatan; Jesus F. González Roldan, Centro Nacional de Programas Preventivos y Control de Enfermedades (CENAPRECE) Secretaría de Salud Mexico; Fabian Correa-Morales, Centro Nacional de Programas Preventivos y Control de Enfermedades (CENAPRECE) Secretaría de Salud Mexico; Gustavo Sánchez-Tejeda, Centro Nacional de Programas Preventivos y Control de Enfermedades (CENAPRECE) Secretaría de Salud Mexico; Pablo Kuri Morales, Subsecretaría de Prevención y Promoción de la Salud; Pablo Manrique-Saide, Universidad Autonoma de Yucatan; Ira M. Longini, University of Florida; M. Elizabeth Halloran, Center for Inference and Dynamics of Infectious Diseases; Gonzalo Vazquez Prokopec, Emory University
• Language: English
• Date: 2018-03-15
• Publisher: Public Library of Science
• Publication Version: Final Published Version
• Copyright Statement: © 2018 Public Library of Science. All Rights Reserved.
• License: Creative Commons Creative Commons CC0 1.0 Universal
• Final Published Version (URL): http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0006298
• Title of Journal or Parent Work: PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases
• ISSN: 1935-2727
• Volume: 12
• Issue: 3
• Grant/Funding Information: Research funding was provided by the National Science Foundation (DEB/EEID award: 1640698), the Office of Infectious Disease, Bureau for Global Health, U.S. Agency for International Development, under the terms of an Interagency Agreement with the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC: OADS BAA 2016-N-17844), and by partial support from the National Institutes of Health through the MIDAS research network (U54 GM111274) and the Canadian Institutes of Health Research (CIHR) and IDRC (Preventing Zika disease with novel vector control approaches, Project 108412). 'SANOFI Pasteur financed the cohort study (DNG25) for which HGD and NPR were PIs.
• Research Categories: Environmental Sciences; Biology, Biostatistics

Abstract

Response to Zika virus (ZIKV) invasion in Brazil lagged a year from its estimated February 2014 introduction, and was triggered by the occurrence of severe congenital malformations. Dengue (DENV) and chikungunya (CHIKV) invasions tend to show similar response lags. We analyzed geo-coded symptomatic case reports from the city of Merida, Mexico, with the goal of assessing the utility of historical DENV data to infer CHIKV and ZIKV introduction and propagation. About 42% of the 40,028 DENV cases reported during 2008–2015 clustered in 27% of the city, and these clustering areas were where the first CHIKV and ZIKV cases were reported in 2015 and 2016, respectively. Furthermore, the three viruses had significant agreement in their spatio-temporal distribution (Kendall W > 0.63; p < 0.01). Longitudinal DENV data generated patterns indicative of the resulting introduction and transmission patterns of CHIKV and ZIKV, leading to important insights for the surveillance and targeted control to emerging Aedes-borne viruses.