The role of booster vaccination and ongoing viral evolution in seasonal circulation of SARS-CoV-2

• Type of Material: Article
• Authors: ANM Kraay, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign; ME Gallagher, Johns Hopkins University; Y Ge, University of Southern Mississippi; P Han, Emory University; JM Baker, Emory University; Katharina Koelle, Emory University; A Handel, University of Georgia; Benjamin Lopman, Emory University
• Language: English
• Date: 2022-09-07
• Publisher: ROYAL SOC
• Publication Version: Final Published Version
• Copyright Statement: © 2022 The Authors.
• License: Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International
• Final Published Version (URL): http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2022.0477
• Title of Journal or Parent Work: JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY INTERFACE
• Volume: 19
• Issue: 194
• Start Page: 20220477
• End Page: 20220477
• Grant/Funding Information: This work was supported by NIAID T32AI074492 (to J.M.B.), NIGMS award R01 GM 12480 and 12480-03S1 (both to A.N.M.K., M.E.G., J.M.B., K.K., A.H. and B.A.L.), and NSF award 2032084 (to A.N.M.K. and B.A.L.).
• Keywords: Science & Technology; evolution; INFECTION; non-pharmaceutical interventions; vaccination; Science & Technology - Other Topics; Multidisciplinary Sciences; booster; COVID-19
• Research Categories: Health Sciences, Public Health

Abstract

Periodic resurgences of COVID-19 in the coming years can be expected, while public health interventions may be able to reduce their intensity. We used a transmission model to assess how the use of booster doses and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) amid ongoing pathogen evolution might influence future transmission waves. We find that incidence is likely to increase as NPIs relax, with a second seasonally driven surge expected in autumn 2022. However, booster doses can greatly reduce the intensity of both waves and reduce cumulative deaths by 20% between 7 January 2022 and 7 January 2023. Reintroducing NPIs during the autumn as incidence begins to increase again could also be impactful. Combining boosters and NPIs results in a 30% decrease in cumulative deaths, with potential for greater impacts if variant-adapted boosters are used. Reintroducing these NPIs in autumn 2022 as transmission rates increase provides similar benefits to sustaining NPIs indefinitely (307 000 deaths with indefinite NPIs and boosters compared with 304 000 deaths with transient NPIs and boosters). If novel variants with increased transmissibility or immune escape emerge, deaths will be higher, but vaccination and NPIs are expected to remain effective tools to decrease both cumulative and peak health system burden, providing proportionally similar relative impacts.