Delays in reducing waterborne and water-related infectious diseases in China under climate change

• Type of Material: Article
• Authors: Maggie Hodges, Emory University; Jessica H. Belle, Emory University; Elizabeth J. Carlton, University of Colorado; Song Liang, University of Florida; Huazhong Li, China Center for Disease Control and Prevention; Wei Luo, Chinese Academy of Sciences; Matthew Freeman, Emory University; Yang Liu, Emory University; Yang Gao, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory; Jeremy Hess, Emory University; Justin V Remais, Emory University
• Language: English
• Date: 2014-12-01
• Publisher: Nature Research (part of Springer Nature)
• Publication Version: Author Accepted Manuscript (After Peer Review)
• Copyright Statement: © 2014 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved.
• Final Published Version (URL): http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/NCLIMATE2428
• Title of Journal or Parent Work: Nature Climate Change
• ISSN: 1758-678X
• Volume: 4
• Issue: 12
• Start Page: 1109
• End Page: 1115
• Grant/Funding Information: This work was supported in part by the Chemical, Bioengineering, Environmental, and Transport Systems Division of the National Science Foundation under grant no. 1249250; by the Division of Earth Sciences of the National Science Foundation under grant no. 1360330; by the National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Disease (K01AI091864); and by the Global Health Institute at Emory University.; Yang Gao was supported in part by the Office of Science of the U.S. Department of Energy as part of the Regional and Global Climate Modeling Program.; The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory is operated for DOE by Battelle Memorial Institute (DE-AC05-76RL01830).; Song Liang was supported in part by US EPA Science to Achieve Results grant (RD835192010); and by Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida.; Yang Liu was supported in part by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (U01EH000405); and the National Institutes of Health (R21ES020225)
• Keywords: AIR; BURDEN; Science & Technology; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences; Environmental Sciences; Physical Sciences; Environmental Sciences & Ecology; HEALTH; SANITATION; CMIP5; Environmental Studies; Life Sciences & Biomedicine; COMPARATIVE RISK-ASSESSMENT
• Research Categories: Environmental Sciences; Health Sciences, Public Health

Abstract

Despite China's rapid progress in improving water, sanitation and hygiene (WSH) access, in 2011, 471 million people lacked access to improved sanitation and 401 million to household piped water. As certain infectious diseases are sensitive to changes in both climate and WSH conditions, we projected impacts of climate change on WSH-attributable diseases in China in 2020 and 2030 by coupling estimates of the temperature sensitivity of diarrhoeal diseases and three vector-borne diseases, temperature projections from global climate models, WSH-infrastructure development scenarios, and projected demographic changes. By 2030, climate change is projected to delay China's rapid progress towards reducing WSH-attributable infectious disease burden by 8-85 months. This development delay summarizes the adverse impact of climate change on WSH-attributable infectious diseases in China, and can be used in other settings where a significant health burden may accompany future changes in climate even as the total burden of disease falls owing to non-climate reasons.