The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change

• Type of Material: Article
• Authors: AM Vicedo-Cabrera, University of Bern; Noah Scovronick, Emory University; F Sera, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine; D Royé, University of Santiago de Compostela; R Schneider, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine; A Tobias, Spanish Council for Scientific Research; C Astrom, Umea University; Y Guo, Monash University; Y Honda, University of Tsukuba; DM Hondula, Arizona State University-Tempe; R Abrutzky, University of Buenos Aires; S Tong, Shanghai Jiao Tong University; De Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio M Coelho, University of São Paulo, São; Nascimento PH Saldiva, University of São Paulo, São; E Lavigne, Health Canada; Matus P Correa, Universidad de los Andes; Valdes N Ortega, Universidad de los Andes; H Kan, Fudan University; S Osorio, University of São Paulo; J Kysely, Czech Academy of Sciences; A Urban, Czech Academy of Sciences; H Orru, University of Tartu; E Indermitte, University of Tartu; JJK Jaakkola, University of Oulu; N Ryti, University of Oulu; M Pascal, French National Public Health Agency; A Schneider, German Research Center for Environmental Health (GmbH); K Katsouyanni, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens; E Samoli, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens; F Mayvaneh, Hakim Sabzevari University; A Entezari, Hakim Sabzevari University; P Goodman, Imperial College London; A Zeka, Brunel University London; P Michelozzi, Lazio Regional Health Service; F de'Donato, Lazio Regional Health Service; M Hashizume, University of Tokyo; B Alahmad, Harvard University; MH Diaz, National Institute of Public Health, Mexico; De La Cruz C Valencia, National Institute of Public Health, Mexico; A Overcenco, Ministry of Health, Chisinau; D Houthuijs, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), the Netherlands; C Ameling, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), the Netherlands; S Rao, Norwegian Institute of Public Health; F Di Ruscio, Norwegian Institute of Public Health; G Carrasco-Escobar, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia; X Seposo, Kyoto University; S Silva, Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr Ricardo Jorge; J Madureira, Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr Ricardo Jorge; IH Holobaca, Babes-Bolay University; S Fratianni, University of Torino; F Acquaotta, University of Torino; H Kim, National University, Seoul; W Lee, National University, Seoul; C Iniguez, CIBER de Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Madrid; B Forsberg, Umeå University; MS Ragettli, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute; YLL Guo, National Taiwan University (NTU); BY Chen, National Health Research Institutes, Taiwan; S Li, Monash University; B Armstrong, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine; A Aleman, University of the Republic of Uruguay; A Zanobetti, Harvard University; J Schwartz, Harvard University; TN Dang, University of Medicine and Pharmacy at Ho Chi Minh City; DV Dung, University of Medicine and Pharmacy at Ho Chi Minh City; N Gillett, Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis; A Haines, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine; M Mengel, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research; V Huber, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research; A Gasparrini, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
• Language: English
• Date: 2021-05-31
• Publisher: NATURE PORTFOLIO
• Publication Version: Author Accepted Manuscript (After Peer Review)
• Copyright Statement: © 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited
• Final Published Version (URL): http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01058-x
• Title of Journal or Parent Work: NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
• Volume: 11
• Issue: 6
• Start Page: 492
• End Page: +
• Grant/Funding Information: S.L. was support by the Early Career Fellowship of the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council (APP1109193). Y.L.L.G. was supported by the Taiwan Ministry of Science and Technology (MOST110-2918-I-002-007) as a visiting academic at the University of Sydney.; This study was supported by the Medical Research Council UK (grant no. MR/M022625/1), the Natural Environment Research Council UK (grant no. NE/R009384/1) and the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Project Exhaustion (grant no. 820655). N.S. was supported by the NIEHS-funded HERCULES Center (P30ES019776). Y.H. was supported by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund of the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency, Japan (JPMEERF15S11412).; J.M. was supported by the Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT) (SFRH/BPD/115112/2016). S.R. and F.d.R. were supported by European Union’s Horizon 2020 Project EXHAUSTION (grant no. 820655); M.H. was supported by the Japan Science and Technology Agency as part of SICORP, grant no. JPMJSC20E4. Y.G. was supported by the Career Development Fellowship of the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council (APP1163693).; J.J.J.K.J. was supported by Academy of Finland (grant no. 310372). V.H. was supported by the Spanish Ministry of Economy, Industry and Competitiveness (grant no. PCIN-2017-046) and the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (grant no. 01LS1201A2). J.K. and A.U. were supported by the Czech Science Foundation (grant no. 20-28560S).
• Keywords: METAANALYSIS; Life Sciences & Biomedicine; Science & Technology; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences; Environmental Sciences & Ecology; TEMPERATURE; Environmental Studies; Physical Sciences; Environmental Sciences

Abstract

Climate change affects human health; however, there have been no large-scale, systematic efforts to quantify the heat-related human health impacts that have already occurred due to climate change. Here, we use empirical data from 732 locations in 43 countries to estimate the mortality burdens associated with the additional heat exposure that has resulted from recent human-induced warming, during the period 1991–2018. Across all study countries, we find that 37.0% (range 20.5–76.3%) of warm-season heat-related deaths can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change and that increased mortality is evident on every continent. Burdens varied geographically but were of the order of dozens to hundreds of deaths per year in many locations. Our findings support the urgent need for more ambitious mitigation and adaptation strategies to minimize the public health impacts of climate change.