Mapping 123 million neonatal, infant and child deaths between 2000 and 2017

• Type of Material: Article
• Authors: Roy Burstein, University of Washington; Nathaniel J. Henry, University of Washington; Michael L. Collison, University of Washington; Laurie B. Marczak, University of Washington; Amber Sligar, University of Washington; Stefanie Watson, University of Washington; Neal Marquez, University of Washington; Mahdieh Abbasalizad-Farhangi, Tabriz University of Medical Sciences; Masoumeh Abbasi, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences; Foad Abd-Allah, Cairo University; Amir Abdoli, Jahrom University of Medical Sciences; Mohammad Abdollahi, Tehran University of Medical Sciences; Ibrahim Abdollahpour, Tehran University of Medical Sciences; Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader, Ministry of Health, Saudi Arabia; Michael R. M. Abrigo, Philippine Institute of Development Studies; Dilaram Acharya, Dongguk University; Oladimeji M. Adebayo, University College Hospital; Victor Adekanmbi, Cardiff University; Robert S. Bernstein, Emory University; Kabayam Venkat Narayan, Emory University
• Language: English
• Date: 2019-10-17
• Publisher: Nature Research (part of Springer Nature)
• Publication Version: Final Published Version
• Copyright Statement: © 2019, The Author(s).
• License: Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International
• Final Published Version (URL): http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1545-0
• Title of Journal or Parent Work: Nature
• ISSN: 0028-0836
• Volume: 574
• Issue: 7778
• Start Page: 353
• End Page: +
• Grant/Funding Information: This work was primarily supported by grant OPP1132415 from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
• Keywords: VACCINATION; SUCCESS; INTERVENTIONS; SYSTEMATIC ANALYSIS; Science & Technology - Other Topics; Science & Technology; UNDER-5 MORTALITY; PREVENTION; POPULATION; Multidisciplinary Sciences; HEALTH; CIVIL REGISTRATION; AFRICA
• Research Categories: Health Sciences, Medicine and Surgery; Health Sciences, Public Health

Abstract

Since 2000, many countries have achieved considerable success in improving child survival, but localized progress remains unclear. To inform efforts towards United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 3.2—to end preventable child deaths by 2030—we need consistently estimated data at the subnational level regarding child mortality rates and trends. Here we quantified, for the period 2000–2017, the subnational variation in mortality rates and number of deaths of neonates, infants and children under 5 years of age within 99 low- and middle-income countries using a geostatistical survival model. We estimated that 32% of children under 5 in these countries lived in districts that had attained rates of 25 or fewer child deaths per 1,000 live births by 2017, and that 58% of child deaths between 2000 and 2017 in these countries could have been averted in the absence of geographical inequality. This study enables the identification of high-mortality clusters, patterns of progress and geographical inequalities to inform appropriate investments and implementations that will help to improve the health of all populations.