Evaluating scenarios for school reopening under COVID19

• Type of Material: Article
• Authors: Arden Baxter, Georgia Institute of Technology; Buse E Oruc, Georgia Institute of Technology; John Asplund, Georgia Institute of Technology; Pinar Keskinocak, Emory University; Nicoleta Serban, Georgia Institute of Technology
• Language: English
• Date: 2022-03-14
• Publisher: BMC
• Publication Version: Final Published Version
• Copyright Statement: © The Author(s) 2022
• License: Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International
• Final Published Version (URL): http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12889-022-12910-w
• Title of Journal or Parent Work: BMC PUBLIC HEALTH
• Volume: 22
• Issue: 1
• Start Page: 496
• End Page: 496
• Grant/Funding Information: The research was supported by the William W. George and by the Virginia C. and Joseph C. Mello endowments at Georgia Tech. This research was supported in part by Cooperative Agreement number NU38OT000297 from The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and CSTE, NSF Graduate Research Fellowship DGE-1650044, NSF grant MRI 1828187, and research cyberinfrastructure resources and services provided by the Partnership for an Advanced Computing Environment (PACE) at the Georgia Institute of Technology. The funders played no role in the study design, data collection, analysis, interpretation, or in writing the manuscript.
• Keywords: Public health; School reopening; Science & Technology; COVID19; Life Sciences & Biomedicine; Agent-based disease modeling; Non-pharmaceutical interventions; Public, Environmental & Occupational Health; Pandemic
• Research Categories: Engineering, Industrial; Health Sciences, Public Health

Abstract

Background: Thousands of school systems have struggled with the decisions about how to deliver education safely and effectively amid the COVID19 pandemic. This study evaluates the public health impact of various school reopening scenarios (when, and how to return to in-person instruction) on the spread of COVID19. Methods: An agent-based simulation model was adapted and used to project the impact of various school reopening strategies on the number of infections, hospitalizations, and deaths in the state of Georgia during the study period, i.e., February 18th-November 24th, 2020. The tested strategies include (i) schools closed, i.e., all students receive online instruction, (ii) alternating school day, i.e., half of the students receive in-person instruction on Mondays and Wednesdays and the other half on Tuesdays and Thursdays, (iii) alternating school day for children, i.e., half of the children (ages 0-9) receive in-person instruction on Mondays and Wednesdays and the other half on Tuesdays and Thursdays, (iv) children only, i.e., only children receive in-person instruction, (v) regular, i.e., all students return to in-person instruction. We also tested the impact of universal masking in schools. Results: Across all scenarios, the number of COVID19-related deaths ranged from approximately 8.8 to 9.9 thousand, the number of cumulative infections ranged from 1.76 to 1.96 million for adults and 625 to 771 thousand for children and youth, and the number of COVID19-related hospitalizations ranged from approximately 71 to 80 thousand during the study period. Compared to schools reopening August 10 with a regular reopening strategy, the percentage of the population infected reduced by 13%, 11%, 9%, and 6% in the schools closed, alternating school day for children, children only, and alternating school day reopening strategies, respectively. Universal masking in schools for all students further reduced outcome measures. Conclusions: Reopening schools following a regular reopening strategy would lead to higher deaths, hospitalizations, and infections. Hybrid in-person and online reopening strategies, especially if offered as an option to families and teachers who prefer to opt-in, provide a good balance in reducing the infection spread compared to the regular reopening strategy, while ensuring access to in-person education.