Population size estimation methods: Searching for the holy grail

• Type of Material: Article
• Authors: Joyce J. Neal, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; Dimitri Prybylski, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; Travis Sanchez, Emory University; Wolfgang Hladik, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
• Language: English
• Date: 2020-10-01
• Publisher: JMR Publications
• Publication Version: Final Published Version
• Copyright Statement: ©Joyce J Neal, Dimitri Prybylski, Travis Sanchez, Wolfgang Hladik.
• License: Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International
• Final Published Version (URL): http://dx.doi.org/10.2196/25076
• Title of Journal or Parent Work: JMIR Public Health and Surveillance
• Volume: 6
• Issue: 4
• Start Page: e25076
• End Page: e25076
• Grant/Funding Information: This publication has been supported by the PEPFAR through the CDC.
• Keywords: Computing Methodologies; population size estimation; Population Groups; key populations; Population Density; capture-recapture; HIV; Humans
• Research Categories: Health Sciences, Public Health; Biology, Virology

Abstract

Accurate size estimates of key populations (eg, sex workers, people who inject drugs, transgender people, and men who have sex with men) can help to ensure adequate availability of services to prevent or treat HIV infection; inform HIV response planning, target setting, and resource allocation; and provide data for monitoring and evaluating program outcomes and impact. A gold standard method for population size estimation does not exist, but quality of estimates could be improved by using empirical methods, multiple data sources, and sound statistical concepts. To highlight such methods, a special collection of papers in JMIR Public Health and Surveillance has been released under the title “Key Population Size Estimations.” We provide a summary of these papers to highlight advances in the use of empirical methods and call attention to persistent gaps in information.