Modeling serological testing to inform relaxation of social distancing for COVID-19 control

• Type of Material: Article
• Authors: Alicia N M Kraay, Emory University; Kristin Nelson, Emory University; Conan Y Zhao, Georgia Institute of Technology; David Demory, Georgia Institute of Technology; Joshua S Weitz, Georgia Institute of Technology; Benjamin Lopman, Emory University
• Language: English
• Date: 2021-12-03
• Publisher: NATURE PORTFOLIO
• Publication Version: Final Published Version
• Copyright Statement: © The Author(s) 2021
• License: Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International
• Final Published Version (URL): http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-26774-y
• Title of Journal or Parent Work: NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
• Volume: 12
• Issue: 1
• Start Page: 7063
• End Page: 7063
• Grant/Funding Information: B.A.L. and A.N.M.K. were supported by the Vaccine Impact Modelling Consortium; B.A.L. and K.N.N. were supported by NIH/NICHD R01 HD097175; B.A.L., K.N.N., and A.N.M.K. were supported by NIH/NIGMS R01 GM124280; J.S.W. and D.D. were supported by Simons Foundation (Scope Award ID 329108); B.A.L. was supported by NSF 2032084 and NIH/NIGMS R01GM124280/GM124280-03S1; J.S.W. was supported by the Army Research Office (W911NF-19-1-0384); J.S.W. and C.Y.Z. were supported by National Science Foundation (2032082) and J.S.W. was supported by National Science Foundation (1806606, 1829636).
• Keywords: ANTIBODIES; Science & Technology; Multidisciplinary Sciences; CHAIN MONTE-CARLO; Science & Technology - Other Topics
• Research Categories: Health Sciences, Public Health; Physics, General; Biology, Virology

Abstract

Serological testing remains a passive component of the public health response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Using a transmission model, we examine how serological testing could have enabled seropositive individuals to increase their relative levels of social interaction while offsetting transmission risks. We simulate widespread serological testing in New York City, South Florida, and Washington Puget Sound and assume seropositive individuals partially restore their social contacts. Compared to no intervention, our model suggests that widespread serological testing starting in late 2020 would have averted approximately 3300 deaths in New York City, 1400 deaths in South Florida and 11,000 deaths in Washington State by June 2021. In all sites, serological testing blunted subsequent waves of transmission. Findings demonstrate the potential benefit of widespread serological testing, had it been implemented in the pre-vaccine era, and remain relevant now amid the potential for emergence of new variants.