Nonlinear Neurobiological Probability Weighting Functions For Aversive Outcomes

• Type of Material: Article
• Authors: Gregory S Berns, Emory University; C Monica Capra, Emory University; Jonathan Chappelow, Emory University; Sara Moore, Emory University; Charles N. Noussair, Emory University
• Language: English
• Date: 2008-02-15
• Publisher: Elsevier
• Publication Version: Author Accepted Manuscript (After Peer Review)
• Copyright Statement: © 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
• License: Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommerical-NoDerivs 3.0 Unported
• Final Published Version (URL): http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.neuroimage.2007.10.028
• Title of Journal or Parent Work: NeuroImage
• ISSN: 1053-8119
• Volume: 39
• Issue: 4
• Start Page: 2047
• End Page: 2057
• Grant/Funding Information: Supported by grants from the National Institute on Drug Abuse (DA016434 and DA20116).
• Research Categories: Biology, Neuroscience; Psychology, Behavioral

Abstract

While mainstream economic models assume that individuals treat probabilities objectively, many people tend to overestimate the likelihood of improbable events and underestimate the likelihood of probable events. However, a biological account for why probabilities would be treated this way does not yet exist. While undergoing fMRI, we presented individuals with a series of lotteries, defined by the voltage of an impending cutaneous electric shock and the probability with which the shock would be received. During the prospect phase, neural activity that tracked the probability of the expected outcome was observed in a circumscribed network of brain regions that included the anterior cingulate, visual, parietal, and temporal cortices. Most of these regions displayed responses to probabilities consistent with nonlinear probability weighting. The neural responses to passive lotteries predicted 79% of subsequent decisions when individuals were offered choices between different lotteries, and exceeded that predicted by behavior alone near the indifference point.